TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084120
Played Sep 6Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161146111012115
Matej Svitac
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMatej Svitac to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Matej Svitac at 56.2%
87 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 11–16 Matej Svitac Leon Kolman has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:09What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Svitac
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Svitac
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1645 vs Svitac 1658
Svitac
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 40% vs Svitac 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 40% vs Svitac 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman -2 · Svitac +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 2.10 / Svitac 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Svitac)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13084120
Kolman2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 72 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Svitac1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 65 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman5wins
AwaySvitac5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman100%4 of 4
AwaySvitac83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman4Svitac6n = 10Svitac took 6 of 10
S2Kolman6Svitac4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S3Kolman5Svitac5n = 10split evenly
S4Kolman3Svitac5n = 8Svitac took 5 of 8
S5Kolman2Svitac1n = 3Kolman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanSvitacK − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.839.1−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime358 / 674 vs 210 / 38253.1%55%358 / 674 vs 210 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacKolman 2.10/Svitac 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman—1111610113M. Svitac—64111252
WSep 1 · 13:15L. Kolman—11815113M. Svitac—7111351
LAug 15 · 11:45L. Kolman—12101381M. Svitac—141211113
LAug 13 · 11:45L. Kolman—781121M. Svitac—11118113
LAug 12 · 11:45L. Kolman—711591M. Svitac—11811113
WJul 29 · 12:43L. Kolman—11114123M. Svitac—7711101
WJul 29 · 11:45L. Kolman—1111113M. Svitac—7670
LJul 23 · 09:15L. Kolman—31060M. Svitac—1112113
WJul 21 · 09:45L. Kolman—8111012113M. Svitac—117121072
LJul 20 · 09:15L. Kolman—911118102M. Svitac—119811123
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163WSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113
M. Svitac10
WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113WSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113WSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860LSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990LSep 4 · 12:13M. Svitac1.7313580T. Hucko2.001511113WSep 4 · 11:15T. Hucko2.0015414462M. Svitac1.7313111211113WSep 4 · 10:45M. Svitac1.911111113Z. Vasatko1.808150
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