TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084474
Played Sep 6Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119311411711––
Matej Svitac
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Pavlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Matej Svitac below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Adam Pavlik at 54.0%
67 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 3–4 Matej Svitac Adam Pavlik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Svitac
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1537 vs Svitac 1658
Svitac
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 20% vs Svitac 40%
Svitac
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 50% vs Svitac 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -4 · Svitac -1
Pavlik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svitac) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svitac form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 1.83 / Svitac 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Svitac)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084474
Pavlik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Svitac1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePavlik3wins
AwaySvitac4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSvitac leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySvitac60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik2Svitac5n = 7Svitac took 5 of 7
S2Pavlik4Svitac3n = 7Pavlik took 4 of 7
S3Pavlik3Svitac4n = 7Svitac took 4 of 7
S4Pavlik3Svitac2n = 5Pavlik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricPavlikSvitacP − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match36.137.6−1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikSvitacBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 320 vs 210 / 38251.6%55%165 / 320 vs 210 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacPavlik 1.83/Svitac 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 6 · 20:23A. Pavlik—71090M. Svitac—1112113
LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik—113471M. Svitac—91111113
LAug 15 · 10:15A. Pavlik—511961M. Svitac—11711113
WJul 19 · 09:15A. Pavlik—1111123M. Svitac—24100
WDec 23 · 16:15A. Pavlik—961111113M. Svitac—11118482
WJul 16 · 18:45A. Pavlik—101111113M. Svitac—129891
LJun 15 · 19:00A. Pavlik—71171292M. Svitac—1181110113
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
M. Svitac10
WSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252WSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113WSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860LSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990LSep 4 · 12:13M. Svitac1.7313580T. Hucko2.001511113WSep 4 · 11:15T. Hucko2.0015414462M. Svitac1.7313111211113WSep 4 · 10:45M. Svitac1.911111113Z. Vasatko1.808150
Upcoming Matches
A. Pavlik
Nothing scheduled
M. Svitac
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