TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043935
Played Aug 30Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1169111171513––
Roman Merkl
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeAdam Pavlik to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 83 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Adam Pavlik at 54.3%
83 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 12–11 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pavlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-11 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1602 vs Merkl 1537
Pavlik
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 80% vs Merkl 40%
Pavlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 80% vs Merkl 40%
Pavlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik -1 · Merkl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 1.80 / Merkl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pavlik)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13043935
Pavlik1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 37 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Merkl1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 94 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back37% 43 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik6wins
AwayMerkl4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPavlik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik100%5 of 5
AwayMerkl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S2Pavlik5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S3Pavlik7Merkl3n = 10Pavlik took 7 of 10
S4Pavlik5Merkl3n = 8Pavlik took 5 of 8
S5Pavlik2Merkl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikMerklP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.5+2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 320 vs 275 / 57151.9%48.2%166 / 320 vs 275 / 571Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikPavlik 1.80/Merkl 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 08:29A. Pavlik—611139102R. Merkl—1191111123
WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik—11911153R. Merkl—6117131
WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik—1111113R. Merkl—9970
WAug 18 · 20:39A. Pavlik—561111113R. Merkl—11118572
LAug 18 · 18:00A. Pavlik—10614111R. Merkl—121112133
LJul 19 · 12:43A. Pavlik—611491R. Merkl—11811113
WJul 19 · 11:45A. Pavlik—11119113R. Merkl—451131
WJul 1 · 15:30A. Pavlik—1111123R. Merkl—76100
WJun 29 · 15:45A. Pavlik—111812113R. Merkl—711111072
LJun 21 · 20:14A. Pavlik—93111192R. Merkl—111149113
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.