TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043870
Played Aug 30Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1012119113711411
Leon Kolman
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 89 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 10–14 Leon Kolman Adam Pavlik has won 10 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-14 in 24
Kolman
Correct
gap of 4 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1602 vs Kolman 1650
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 80% vs Kolman 40%
Pavlik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 90% vs Kolman 60%
Pavlik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik +1 · Kolman -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 2.10 / Kolman 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Kolman)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043870
Pavlik2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 42 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Kolman1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 107 of 183
Up 2–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it70% 82 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik4wins
AwayKolman6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik60%3 of 5
AwayKolman80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S2Pavlik5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S3Pavlik3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S4Pavlik2Kolman4n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
S5Pavlik2Kolman1n = 3Pavlik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikKolmanP − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.136.6−0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 320 vs 356 / 67151.9%53.1%166 / 320 vs 356 / 671Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.840.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanPavlik 2.10/Kolman 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik—101111742L. Kolman—129311113
WAug 15 · 12:20A. Pavlik—119911113L. Kolman—91111682
LAug 15 · 09:15A. Pavlik—118971L. Kolman—81111113
LJun 24 · 13:45A. Pavlik—178891L. Kolman—151111113
LMay 26 · 14:30A. Pavlik—9780L. Kolman—1111113
LMay 9 · 08:24A. Pavlik—5960L. Kolman—1111113
WMay 9 · 06:45A. Pavlik—1111113L. Kolman—7650
WFeb 11 · 21:39A. Pavlik—611511113L. Kolman—11711842
LFeb 11 · 19:00A. Pavlik—811981L. Kolman—11611103
WFeb 8 · 21:51A. Pavlik—1111113L. Kolman—6890
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163
Upcoming Matches
A. Pavlik
Nothing scheduled
L. Kolman
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