TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043767
Played Aug 30Finished
Tomas Kanka
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711119116911119
Adam Pavlik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Kanka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Kanka at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 17–13 Adam Pavlik Adam Pavlik has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kanka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-13 in 30
Kanka
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1588 vs Pavlik 1602
Pavlik
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 60% vs Pavlik 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 50% vs Pavlik 80%
Pavlik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka +2 · Pavlik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavlik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 1.80 / Pavlik 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavlik)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13043767
Kanka1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 49 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Pavlik1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 42 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanka8wins
AwayPavlik2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKanka leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka100%6 of 6
AwayPavlik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka6Pavlik4n = 10Kanka took 6 of 10
S2Kanka4Pavlik6n = 10Pavlik took 6 of 10
S3Kanka7Pavlik3n = 10Kanka took 7 of 10
S4Kanka6Pavlik2n = 8Kanka took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKankaPavlikK − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.735.2+3.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 382 vs 166 / 32048.2%51.9%184 / 382 vs 166 / 320Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikKanka 1.80/Pavlik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka—711119113A. Pavlik—11961192
WJul 17 · 14:45T. Kanka—1111113A. Pavlik—9860
WJul 1 · 17:03T. Kanka—11116113A. Pavlik—861191
WJul 1 · 15:00T. Kanka—11712113A. Pavlik—3111081
WMay 26 · 14:00T. Kanka—11611113A. Pavlik—411681
WApr 25 · 08:16T. Kanka—11811113A. Pavlik—711591
LApr 25 · 07:15T. Kanka—48140A. Pavlik—1111163
WApr 10 · 15:30T. Kanka—11411113A. Pavlik—711891
WMar 31 · 14:00T. Kanka—911711113A. Pavlik—11611772
LMar 23 · 17:33T. Kanka—961171A. Pavlik—11118113
T. Kanka10
LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.579740T. Kanka2.251111113LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka2.3894111162L. Kolman1.53111199113LAug 22 · 06:00T. Kanka1.80881181R. Merkl1.9111115113LAug 19 · 17:03J. Juppa2.501111113T. Kanka1.505590WAug 19 · 16:00T. Kanka1.50611911113J. Juppa2.5011411552WAug 19 · 14:30O. Chadima1.91711117102T. Kanka1.80116911123
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
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