TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457315
Played Aug 19Finished
Ondrej Chadima
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111161197111012
Tomas Kanka
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:14 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Kanka to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Chadima above · Tomas Kanka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 95 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Tomas Kanka at 55.5%
95 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Chadima 4–2 Tomas Kanka Tomas Kanka has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:14What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kanka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Chadima
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chadima 1543 vs Kanka 1581
Kanka
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chadima 80% vs Kanka 60%
Chadima
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chadima 50% vs Kanka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chadima +1 · Kanka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kanka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chadima form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChadima 1.91 / Kanka 1.80
Signal prob.45% / 56%
Edge (Kanka)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12457315
Chadima1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 56 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back19% 16 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 45
Kanka1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 48 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it73% 33 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeChadima4wins
AwayKanka2wins
6 of 6 to a deciderChadima leads 4–2, and 6 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChadima66.7%2 of 3
AwayKanka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chadima3Kanka3n = 6split evenly
S2Chadima4Kanka2n = 6Chadima took 4 of 6
S3Chadima1Kanka5n = 6Kanka took 5 of 6
S4Chadima4Kanka2n = 6Chadima took 4 of 6
S5Chadima4Kanka2n = 6Chadima took 4 of 6
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home467%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricChadimaKankaC − KBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match47.848.5−0.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChadimaKankaBasisWin rate · lifetime312 / 598 vs 184 / 38252.2%48.2%312 / 598 vs 184 / 382Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KankaChadima 1.91/Kanka 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.5%
Kanka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 18 · 14:30O. Chadima—1111610123T. Kanka—891112102
WJul 31 · 14:30O. Chadima—118612113T. Kanka—811111072
LJul 24 · 08:33O. Chadima—81171162T. Kanka—119119113
LJul 24 · 07:30O. Chadima—11591292T. Kanka—9111110113
WJan 13 · 11:30O. Chadima—1011118113T. Kanka—12881172
WDec 1 · 11:45O. Chadima—911612113T. Kanka—118111052
O. Chadima10
WSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113LSep 5 · 19:30T. Hanke1.73117116113O. Chadima2.0071181172WSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172LSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:15J. Gruber1.361111113O. Chadima3.004740LAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133WAug 31 · 17:45O. Chadima2.7513811113P. Orlowski1.401111971LAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141LAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103
T. Kanka10
LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.579740T. Kanka2.251111113LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka2.3894111162L. Kolman1.53111199113LAug 22 · 06:00T. Kanka1.80881181R. Merkl1.9111115113LAug 19 · 17:03J. Juppa2.501111113T. Kanka1.505590WAug 19 · 16:00T. Kanka1.50611911113J. Juppa2.5011411552
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.