TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472142
Played Aug 22Finished
Tomas Kanka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811811115811––
Roman Merkl
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Merkl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Roman Merkl at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 19–24 Roman Merkl Tomas Kanka has won 19 of their 43 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kanka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-24 in 43
Merkl
Correct
gap of 5 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1568 vs Merkl 1580
Merkl
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 60% vs Merkl 40%
Kanka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 50% vs Merkl 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -1 · Merkl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Merkl) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 1.80 / Merkl 1.91
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Merkl)+8.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472142
Kanka1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 47 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it78% 31 of 40
Merkl1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 93 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back40% 44 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanka5wins
AwayMerkl5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka50%2 of 4
AwayMerkl50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Kanka4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S3Kanka4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Kanka6Merkl3n = 9Kanka took 6 of 9
S5Kanka3Merkl2n = 5Kanka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKankaMerklK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.1+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 390 vs 272 / 56248%48.4%187 / 390 vs 272 / 562Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MerklKanka 1.80/Merkl 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Merkl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 06:00T. Kanka—881181R. Merkl—11115113
LAug 15 · 06:30T. Kanka—5780R. Merkl—1111113
LJul 27 · 16:13T. Kanka—1314131072R. Merkl—11121512113
LJul 27 · 15:15T. Kanka—81141542R. Merkl—1191113113
LJul 1 · 13:30T. Kanka—119971R. Merkl—51111113
WJun 25 · 21:08T. Kanka—7111011113R. Merkl—11512892
WJun 25 · 20:00T. Kanka—941111123R. Merkl—111189102
WMay 22 · 16:00T. Kanka—5111011113R. Merkl—11312762
WMay 16 · 07:15T. Kanka—11811113R. Merkl—511461
WMay 10 · 06:15T. Kanka—11912113R. Merkl—5111011
T. Kanka10
LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.579740T. Kanka2.251111113LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka2.3894111162L. Kolman1.53111199113LAug 19 · 17:03J. Juppa2.501111113T. Kanka1.505590WAug 19 · 16:00T. Kanka1.50611911113J. Juppa2.5011411552WAug 19 · 14:30O. Chadima1.91711117102T. Kanka1.80116911123
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110
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