TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472350
Played Aug 22Finished
Tomas Kanka
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911411119119611
Leon Kolman
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 92 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 68.5%
92 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 9–21 Leon Kolman Tomas Kanka has won 9 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-21 in 30
Kolman
Correct
gap of 12 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1568 vs Kolman 1667
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 40% vs Kolman 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 50% vs Kolman 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -2 · Kolman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 2.38 / Kolman 1.53
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Kolman)+11.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472350
Kanka2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 48 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 42
Kolman1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 110 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it86% 49 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it68% 82 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanka2wins
AwayKolman8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKankan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolman87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka2Kolman8n = 10Kolman took 8 of 10
S2Kanka3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S3Kanka6Kolman4n = 10Kanka took 6 of 10
S4Kanka3Kolman4n = 7Kolman took 4 of 7
S5Kanka2Kolman5n = 7Kolman took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKankaKolmanKanka − KolmanBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.544.7−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 390 vs 354 / 67148%52.8%187 / 390 vs 354 / 671Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKanka 2.38/Kolman 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.8%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 09:04T. Kanka—79100L. Kolman—1111113
LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka—94111162L. Kolman—111199113
LAug 18 · 16:00T. Kanka—911114112L. Kolman—119911133
LJul 27 · 13:45T. Kanka—71111692L. Kolman—115911113
WJul 24 · 07:00T. Kanka—11111113113L. Kolman—71361592
LJul 21 · 10:45T. Kanka—12761182L. Kolman—1011118113
LJul 18 · 14:15T. Kanka—14860L. Kolman—1611113
WJun 29 · 09:13T. Kanka—1351111113L. Kolman—15116462
LJun 29 · 06:30T. Kanka—9590L. Kolman—1111113
LJun 23 · 15:00T. Kanka—91111592L. Kolman—118811113
T. Kanka10
LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.579740T. Kanka2.251111113LAug 22 · 06:00T. Kanka1.80881181R. Merkl1.9111115113LAug 19 · 17:03J. Juppa2.501111113T. Kanka1.505590WAug 19 · 16:00T. Kanka1.50611911113J. Juppa2.5011411552WAug 19 · 14:30O. Chadima1.91711117102T. Kanka1.80116911123
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092LAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152WAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100
Upcoming Matches
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L. Kolman
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