TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043838
Played Aug 30Finished
Tomas Kanka
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119116611611115
Leon Kolman
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:46 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Leon Kolman at 68.9%
87 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 9–21 Leon Kolman Tomas Kanka has won 9 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Kolman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-21 in 30
Kolman
Wrong
gap of 12 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1568 vs Kolman 1663
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 20% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 40% vs Kolman 70%
Kolman
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka -1 · Kolman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kanka form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 2.63 / Kolman 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Kolman)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13043838
Kanka2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 47 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back28% 20 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 41
Kolman1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 105 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it69% 79 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanka2wins
AwayKolman8wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKolman leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKankan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKolman87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka2Kolman8n = 10Kolman took 8 of 10
S2Kanka3Kolman7n = 10Kolman took 7 of 10
S3Kanka6Kolman4n = 10Kanka took 6 of 10
S4Kanka3Kolman4n = 7Kolman took 4 of 7
S5Kanka2Kolman5n = 7Kolman took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKankaKolmanKanka − KolmanBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.544.7−4.2per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 382 vs 354 / 66747.9%53.1%183 / 382 vs 354 / 667Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKanka 2.63/Kolman 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 09:04T. Kanka—79100L. Kolman—1111113
LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka—94111162L. Kolman—111199113
LAug 18 · 16:00T. Kanka—911114112L. Kolman—119911133
LJul 27 · 13:45T. Kanka—71111692L. Kolman—115911113
WJul 24 · 07:00T. Kanka—11111113113L. Kolman—71361592
LJul 21 · 10:45T. Kanka—12761182L. Kolman—1011118113
LJul 18 · 14:15T. Kanka—14860L. Kolman—1611113
WJun 29 · 09:13T. Kanka—1351111113L. Kolman—15116462
LJun 29 · 06:30T. Kanka—9590L. Kolman—1111113
LJun 23 · 15:00T. Kanka—91111592L. Kolman—118811113
T. Kanka10
LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.579740T. Kanka2.251111113LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka2.3894111162L. Kolman1.53111199113LAug 22 · 06:00T. Kanka1.80881181R. Merkl1.9111115113LAug 19 · 17:03J. Juppa2.501111113T. Kanka1.505590WAug 19 · 16:00T. Kanka1.50611911113J. Juppa2.5011411552WAug 19 · 14:30O. Chadima1.91711117102T. Kanka1.80116911123
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka2.3894111162L. Kolman1.53111199113
Upcoming Matches
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L. Kolman
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