TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12472163
Played Aug 22Finished
Petr Orlowski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911711411––––
Tomas Kanka
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:25 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timePetr Orlowski to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Orlowski above · Tomas Kanka below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 53 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Petr Orlowski at 61.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Petr Orlowski 4–3 Tomas Kanka Tomas Kanka has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:25What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Orlowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Orlowski 1585 vs Kanka 1568
Orlowski
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Orlowski 60% vs Kanka 40%
Orlowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Orlowski 70% vs Kanka 40%
Orlowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Orlowski +1 · Kanka -3
Kanka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Orlowski)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOrlowski 1.57 / Kanka 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Orlowski)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472163
Orlowski1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 49 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it71% 37 of 52
Kanka2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 48 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back27% 20 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeOrlowski4wins
AwayKanka3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderOrlowski leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOrlowski60%3 of 5
AwayKankan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Orlowski5Kanka2n = 7Orlowski took 5 of 7
S2Orlowski3Kanka4n = 7Kanka took 4 of 7
S3Orlowski4Kanka3n = 7Orlowski took 4 of 7
S4Orlowski2Kanka3n = 5Kanka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricOrlowskiKankaO − KBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match37.437.1+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOrlowskiKankaBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 320 vs 187 / 39051.9%48%166 / 320 vs 187 / 390Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OrlowskiOrlowski 1.57/Kanka 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.9%
Orlowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski—9740T. Kanka—1111113
WMar 7 · 07:15P. Orlowski—1161111113T. Kanka—41161392
LOct 11 · 09:05P. Orlowski—1110421T. Kanka—51211113
LOct 11 · 05:15P. Orlowski—18911162T. Kanka—1611711113
WJun 29 · 07:15P. Orlowski—81112113T. Kanka—1151091
WMar 27 · 21:19P. Orlowski—111112113T. Kanka—851481
WMar 27 · 20:15P. Orlowski—1111113T. Kanka—4870
P. Orlowski10
WSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111LSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371WSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141LSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 19:30P. Rucky2.1083111152P. Orlowski1.67111153113WSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102WSep 4 · 18:00P. Orlowski2.1011116113D. Brichacek1.67871161WAug 31 · 20:58P. Orlowski1.73911119113J. Gruber2.0011791182WAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951
T. Kanka10
LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka2.3894111162L. Kolman1.53111199113LAug 22 · 06:00T. Kanka1.80881181R. Merkl1.9111115113LAug 19 · 17:03J. Juppa2.501111113T. Kanka1.505590WAug 19 · 16:00T. Kanka1.50611911113J. Juppa2.5011411552WAug 19 · 14:30O. Chadima1.91711117102T. Kanka1.80116911123
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