TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12457330
Played Aug 19Finished
Tomas Kanka
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611114911115115
Jachym Juppa
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 65.5% is still 65.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Kanka to win
65.5%
65.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Kanka above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 84 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Tomas Kanka at 65.5%
84 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Kanka 21–15 Jachym Juppa Jachym Juppa has won 15 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:13What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Kanka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-15 in 36
Kanka
Correct
gap of 6 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kanka 1567 vs Juppa 1482
Kanka
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kanka 40% vs Juppa 20%
Kanka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kanka 50% vs Juppa 20%
Kanka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kanka +1 · Juppa -3
Juppa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Kanka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Juppa form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKanka 1.50 / Juppa 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 35%
Edge (Kanka)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12457330
Kanka1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 48 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it73% 33 of 45
Juppa2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 107 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back27% 32 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKanka7wins
AwayJuppa3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKanka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKanka100%4 of 4
AwayJuppa50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kanka4Juppa6n = 10Juppa took 6 of 10
S2Kanka6Juppa4n = 10Kanka took 6 of 10
S3Kanka8Juppa2n = 10Kanka took 8 of 10
S4Kanka5Juppa1n = 6Kanka took 5 of 6
S5Kanka2Juppa2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKankaJuppaK − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.9+3.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKankaJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime186 / 386 vs 460 / 87348.2%52.7%186 / 386 vs 460 / 873Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KankaKanka 1.50/Juppa 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Kanka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kanka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 19 · 17:03T. Kanka—5590J. Juppa—1111113
WAug 19 · 16:00T. Kanka—611911113J. Juppa—11411552
WAug 15 · 08:29T. Kanka—1311113J. Juppa—11770
WAug 15 · 05:30T. Kanka—61111113J. Juppa—117671
WAug 6 · 06:45T. Kanka—1211113J. Juppa—10690
WJul 31 · 17:04T. Kanka—11911113J. Juppa—711951
WJul 31 · 16:00T. Kanka—111115113J. Juppa—11771192
LJul 27 · 14:45T. Kanka—69111192J. Juppa—111174113
WJun 29 · 06:00T. Kanka—1111113J. Juppa—8880
LJun 9 · 13:15T. Kanka—109161142J. Juppa—1211146113
T. Kanka10
LAug 30 · 08:58L. Kolman1.501111512113T. Kanka2.50913111092WAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192WAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110WAug 30 · 05:30T. Kanka2.63111166113L. Kolman1.4496111152LAug 22 · 09:04L. Kolman1.531111113T. Kanka2.3879100WAug 22 · 07:30P. Orlowski1.579740T. Kanka2.251111113LAug 22 · 07:00T. Kanka2.3894111162L. Kolman1.53111199113LAug 22 · 06:00T. Kanka1.80881181R. Merkl1.9111115113LAug 19 · 17:03J. Juppa2.501111113T. Kanka1.505590WAug 19 · 14:30O. Chadima1.91711117102T. Kanka1.80116911123
J. Juppa10
LSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990WSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143WSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181LSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250LSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172WSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113WSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671WAug 19 · 17:03J. Juppa2.501111113T. Kanka1.505590
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