TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084420
Played Sep 6Finished
Vit Herrmann
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811911113811––
Jachym Juppa
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJachym Juppa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVit Herrmann above · Jachym Juppa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 72 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Jachym Juppa at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Vit Herrmann 10–17 Jachym Juppa Vit Herrmann has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:18What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Herrmann
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-17 in 27
Juppa
Correct
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Herrmann 1641 vs Juppa 1515
Herrmann
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Herrmann 80% vs Juppa 60%
Herrmann
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Herrmann 60% vs Juppa 80%
Juppa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Herrmann +3 · Juppa +2
Herrmann
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Herrmann) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHerrmann 1.80 / Juppa 1.91
Signal prob.56% / 45%
Edge (Herrmann)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084420
Herrmann1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 41 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 30 of 41
Juppa1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 102 of 208
Down 0–1, comes back29% 33 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHerrmann5wins
AwayJuppa5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHerrmann75%3 of 4
AwayJuppa66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Herrmann4Juppa6n = 10Juppa took 6 of 10
S2Herrmann3Juppa7n = 10Juppa took 7 of 10
S3Herrmann7Juppa3n = 10Herrmann took 7 of 10
S4Herrmann4Juppa3n = 7Herrmann took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHerrmannJuppaH − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.337.7−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHerrmannJuppaBasisWin rate · lifetime214 / 439 vs 451 / 86248.8%52.3%214 / 439 vs 451 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannHerrmann 1.80/Juppa 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.5%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Juppa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 16:00V. Herrmann—111011123J. Juppa—7127101
WAug 1 · 12:29V. Herrmann—1111113J. Juppa—9580
WAug 1 · 11:00V. Herrmann—711119113J. Juppa—11971142
LApr 19 · 13:15V. Herrmann—38110J. Juppa—1111133
LMar 7 · 15:00V. Herrmann—178471J. Juppa—151111113
LFeb 8 · 17:24V. Herrmann—24111282J. Juppa—1111410113
WFeb 8 · 16:15V. Herrmann—121015113J. Juppa—10121381
LFeb 7 · 17:19V. Herrmann—86100J. Juppa—1111123
WFeb 7 · 16:15V. Herrmann—41111113J. Juppa—115951
LJan 24 · 13:16V. Herrmann—881161J. Juppa—11117113
V. Herrmann10
WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951WAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133
J. Juppa10
LSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 12:00J. Juppa1.571111113T. Bertho2.257990WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143WSep 5 · 20:30J. Juppa2.2011156203T. Hanke1.6171311181LSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250LSep 5 · 19:00O. Chadima2.00912118113J. Juppa1.73111021172WSep 5 · 17:30T. Hanke1.6181181162J. Juppa2.20116117113WSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671WSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 07:00Z. Kuksa1.80111371392J. Juppa1.918151111113
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