TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079208
Played Sep 5Finished
Petr Maly
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12141113118710––
Vit Herrmann
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timePetr Maly to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Maly above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-10
Point 86 set 4, 7-10 — our read held Petr Maly at 55.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Petr Maly 22–16 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Maly
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-16 in 38
Maly
Wrong
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maly 1486 vs Herrmann 1610
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 124 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maly 20% vs Herrmann 40%
Herrmann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maly 30% vs Herrmann 60%
Herrmann
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maly +1 · Herrmann -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Maly) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Maly form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaly 1.61 / Herrmann 2.20
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Maly)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13079208
Maly1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 66 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Herrmann2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 62 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back31% 18 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaly8wins
AwayHerrmann2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMaly leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaly85.7%6 of 7
AwayHerrmann33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maly7Herrmann3n = 10Maly took 7 of 10
S2Maly6Herrmann4n = 10Maly took 6 of 10
S3Maly8Herrmann2n = 10Maly took 8 of 10
S4Maly4Herrmann1n = 5Maly took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalyHerrmannM − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.031.3+6.7per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalyHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 450 vs 212 / 44053.3%48.2%240 / 450 vs 212 / 440Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalyMaly 1.61/Herrmann 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 17:01P. Maly—3490V. Herrmann—1111113
WAug 23 · 13:30P. Maly—981111113V. Herrmann—11117372
WJul 26 · 17:03P. Maly—1113113V. Herrmann—91190
WJul 26 · 14:30P. Maly—1111123V. Herrmann—56100
WJun 27 · 11:30P. Maly—101112113V. Herrmann—1261061
WJun 13 · 11:15P. Maly—111111113V. Herrmann—513551
WJun 6 · 15:15P. Maly—11119113V. Herrmann—961121
LMay 31 · 14:45P. Maly—12211592V. Herrmann—1011511113
WMay 3 · 15:00P. Maly—1111143V. Herrmann—67120
WApr 19 · 15:15P. Maly—1811113V. Herrmann—16750
P. Maly10
LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LSep 1 · 20:18T. Hucko1.5711101210113P. Maly2.25912101262LSep 1 · 19:15P. Maly2.388990T. Hucko1.531111113WSep 1 · 18:15P. Maly2.381111612113M. Hajek1.5386111482
V. Herrmann10
WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951WAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133
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