TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079238
Played Sep 5Finished
Petr Maly
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1159117111311114
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Maly above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 93 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 54.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Petr Maly 3–2 Vladimir Lopata Vladimir Lopata has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lopata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maly 1459 vs Lopata 1571
Lopata
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maly 0% vs Lopata 40%
Lopata
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maly 20% vs Lopata 40%
Lopata
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maly -5 · Lopata -1
Maly
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lopata)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lopata form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaly 2.00 / Lopata 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lopata)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13079238
Maly2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog55% won 41 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back35% 14 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Lopata1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 26 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it82% 9 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMaly3wins
AwayLopata2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderMaly leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLopata66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maly2Lopata3n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
S2Maly3Lopata2n = 5Maly took 3 of 5
S3Maly2Lopata3n = 5Lopata took 3 of 5
S4Maly2Lopata1n = 3Maly took 2 of 3
S5Maly2Lopata1n = 3Maly took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMalyLopataM − LBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.638.0+2.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalyLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 449 vs 138 / 26753.2%51.7%239 / 449 vs 138 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataMaly 2.00/Lopata 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Maly won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 29 · 13:15P. Maly—51070V. Lopata—1112113
WAug 22 · 13:04P. Maly—111459113V. Lopata—812111152
LAug 22 · 10:00P. Maly—811712102V. Lopata—1161110123
WJul 25 · 12:38P. Maly—981111113V. Lopata—11113652
WJul 25 · 11:30P. Maly—1111113V. Lopata—8690
P. Maly10
LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 20:34P. Maly1.91613631J. Jnr1.80111111113LSep 2 · 20:00M. Hajek1.57111112113P. Maly2.25781491LSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 17:30J. Jnr1.83111111113P. Maly1.83741391LSep 1 · 20:18T. Hucko1.5711101210113P. Maly2.25912101262LSep 1 · 19:15P. Maly2.388990T. Hucko1.531111113WSep 1 · 18:15P. Maly2.381111612113M. Hajek1.5386111482
V. Lopata10
WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101LAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann2.5011813113V. Lopata1.507111171WAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141WAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103LAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
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