TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037662
Played Aug 29Finished
Ludek Stoces
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11761112101012116
Vladimir Lopata
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladimir Lopata to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLudek Stoces above · Vladimir Lopata below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 96 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Vladimir Lopata at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Ludek Stoces 1–1 Vladimir Lopata Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:50What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lopata
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stoces 1472 vs Lopata 1615
Lopata
Wrong
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stoces 20% vs Lopata 60%
Lopata
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stoces 20% vs Lopata 60%
Lopata
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stoces -4 · Lopata +1
Stoces
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lopata)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoces form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStoces 1.91 / Lopata 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lopata)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13037662
Stoces1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 19 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back25% 7 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Lopata1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite51% won 25 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it76% 19 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStoces1wins
AwayLopata1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricStocesLopataS − LBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match28.527.0+1.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStocesLopataBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 192 vs 135 / 26342.7%51.3%82 / 192 vs 135 / 263Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LopataStoces 1.91/Lopata 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lopata · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stoces won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 22 · 11:00L. Stoces—95110V. Lopata—1111133
WAug 30 · 11:30L. Stoces—1111103V. Lopata—7750
L. Stoces10
WSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113LSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122WSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LAug 30 · 20:34L. Kolman1.5711811113L. Stoces2.25511781LAug 30 · 19:30D. Brichacek1.671211113L. Stoces2.1010940WAug 30 · 19:00L. Stoces2.38111176113L. Kolman1.5357111192WAug 30 · 18:00L. Stoces2.2011211113M. Hajek1.611110781WAug 29 · 16:15L. Stoces1.5711118113P. Maly2.25881141LAug 29 · 15:15P. Maly1.731211911123L. Stoces2.001013114102
V. Lopata10
WSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851WSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741LSep 5 · 10:15P. Maly2.00119713113V. Lopata1.73511111142LSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 30 · 16:47V. Lopata1.611111821V. Herrmann2.2081311113WAug 30 · 15:45V. Lopata1.571111143T. Bertho2.2554120LAug 30 · 14:15S. Kalensky1.8381111123V. Lopata1.831199101LAug 30 · 13:45V. Herrmann2.5011813113V. Lopata1.507111171WAug 29 · 16:44V. Lopata1.2511119113O. Chadima3.75551141WAug 29 · 15:45O. Chadima2.207730V. Lopata1.611111103
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