TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044566
Played Aug 30Finished
David Brichacek
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210119114––––
Ludek Stoces
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:35 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeDavid Brichacek to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Brichacek above · Ludek Stoces below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 57 set 3, 11-4 — our read held David Brichacek at 56.2%
57 points played in total.
H2H David Brichacek 8–7 Ludek Stoces Ludek Stoces has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Brichacek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Brichacek 1622 vs Stoces 1569
Brichacek
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Brichacek 60% vs Stoces 80%
Stoces
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Brichacek 70% vs Stoces 50%
Brichacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Brichacek -1 · Stoces +3
Stoces
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Brichacek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stoces form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBrichacek 1.67 / Stoces 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Brichacek)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13044566
Brichacek1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 106 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it94% 58 of 62
Up 1–0, closes it78% 77 of 99
Stoces2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 20 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back24% 7 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBrichacek5wins
AwayStoces5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBrichacek60%3 of 5
AwayStoces60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Brichacek5Stoces5n = 10split evenly
S2Brichacek7Stoces3n = 10Brichacek took 7 of 10
S3Brichacek5Stoces5n = 10split evenly
S4Brichacek3Stoces4n = 7Stoces took 4 of 7
S5Brichacek1Stoces2n = 3Stoces took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrichacekStocesB − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.736.70.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrichacekStocesBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 300 vs 86 / 19951.7%43.2%155 / 300 vs 86 / 199Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrichacekBrichacek 1.67/Stoces 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Brichacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Brichacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 19:30D. Brichacek—1211113L. Stoces—10940
WAug 22 · 12:34D. Brichacek—711119113L. Stoces—11331182
LAug 22 · 09:30D. Brichacek—3690L. Stoces—1111113
LJul 24 · 13:45D. Brichacek—1131031L. Stoces—91112113
LJul 6 · 18:30D. Brichacek—61161162L. Stoces—117118113
WJul 4 · 13:04D. Brichacek—71111133L. Stoces—1168111
LJul 4 · 10:00D. Brichacek—1191541L. Stoces—91117113
LJun 21 · 08:43D. Brichacek—91111852L. Stoces—118711113
WJun 21 · 07:45D. Brichacek—1111113L. Stoces—9480
WJun 10 · 20:32D. Brichacek—11118113L. Stoces—961151
D. Brichacek10
WSep 6 · 08:58D. Brichacek1.401611911133T. Hanke2.75187116112WSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113WSep 6 · 06:45T. Hanke2.7511711462D. Brichacek1.40711611113WSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko2.104960D. Brichacek1.671111113LSep 5 · 21:00D. Brichacek1.22131111982O. Chadima4.00155211113WSep 5 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.501111113J. Juppa2.505250WSep 5 · 18:30T. Hanke2.5071190D. Brichacek1.501113113WSep 5 · 18:00O. Chadima3.508370D. Brichacek1.281111113WSep 4 · 21:33D. Brichacek2.20611211113P. Orlowski1.6111811592WSep 4 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.91115179113P. Hala1.80311151162
L. Stoces10
WSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113LSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122WSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LAug 30 · 20:34L. Kolman1.5711811113L. Stoces2.25511781WAug 30 · 19:00L. Stoces2.38111176113L. Kolman1.5357111192WAug 30 · 18:00L. Stoces2.2011211113M. Hajek1.611110781WAug 29 · 16:15L. Stoces1.5711118113P. Maly2.25881141LAug 29 · 15:15P. Maly1.731211911123L. Stoces2.001013114102WAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
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