TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084032
Played Sep 6Finished
Mikhail Taranko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411119141210121412
Ludek Stoces
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:56 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLudek Stoces to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMikhail Taranko above · Ludek Stoces below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 109 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Ludek Stoces at 62.5%
109 points played in total.
H2H Mikhail Taranko 3–3 Ludek Stoces Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:56What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stoces
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Taranko 1491 vs Stoces 1571
Stoces
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Taranko 60% vs Stoces 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Taranko 40% vs Stoces 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Taranko -2 · Stoces +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stoces) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Taranko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTaranko 2.50 / Stoces 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Stoces)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084032
Taranko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 24 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back37% 11 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Stoces1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 19 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it83% 5 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it42% 8 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTaranko3wins
AwayStoces3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTarankon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStoces50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Taranko2Stoces4n = 6Stoces took 4 of 6
S2Taranko2Stoces4n = 6Stoces took 4 of 6
S3Taranko2Stoces4n = 6Stoces took 4 of 6
S4Taranko1Stoces3n = 4Stoces took 3 of 4
S5Taranko3Stoces0n = 3Taranko took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricTarankoStocesT − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match39.745.7−6.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTarankoStocesBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 152 vs 88 / 20348%43.4%73 / 152 vs 88 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StocesTaranko 2.50/Stoces 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Stoces · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Taranko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 08:29M. Taranko—51070L. Stoces—1112113
WSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko—4111410143L. Stoces—1191212122
WMar 22 · 09:33M. Taranko—1411912113L. Stoces—1213111092
WMar 22 · 07:15M. Taranko—1112136113L. Stoces—1310111192
LJul 6 · 08:35M. Taranko—1171081L. Stoces—81112113
LJul 6 · 07:15M. Taranko—8630L. Stoces—1111113
M. Taranko10
LSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113LSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko2.104960D. Brichacek1.671111113LAug 29 · 08:23L. Hendrych2.101611911113M. Taranko1.67146111392WAug 29 · 07:15M. Taranko1.80121299113L. Hendrych1.911010111162WAug 29 · 06:15M. Taranko1.53311114113F. Kubos2.3811771172WAug 29 · 05:15M. Taranko2.101191211123T. Bertho1.67911146102WAug 22 · 08:39J. Snr2.63511991M. Taranko1.4411711113LAug 22 · 07:15M. Taranko1.361111119142J. Snr3.00613811163LAug 22 · 06:15M. Taranko1.671313271S. Kalensky2.10151111113
L. Stoces10
WSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:45L. Stoces2.3886121122D. Brichacek1.531111106113WSep 6 · 05:45T. Hanke2.001191061L. Stoces1.7391112113LAug 30 · 20:34L. Kolman1.5711811113L. Stoces2.25511781LAug 30 · 19:30D. Brichacek1.671211113L. Stoces2.1010940WAug 30 · 19:00L. Stoces2.38111176113L. Kolman1.5357111192WAug 30 · 18:00L. Stoces2.2011211113M. Hajek1.611110781WAug 29 · 16:15L. Stoces1.5711118113P. Maly2.25881141LAug 29 · 15:15P. Maly1.731211911123L. Stoces2.001013114102WAug 29 · 14:45L. Stoces1.911161210113V. Lopata1.80711101262
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