TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037464
Played Aug 29Finished
Mikhail Taranko
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
311117117411117
Filip Kubos
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:32 and never touched — 59.2% is still 59.2%
Graded at full timeMikhail Taranko to win
59.2%
59.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMikhail Taranko above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 83 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Mikhail Taranko at 59.2%
83 points played in total.
H2H Mikhail Taranko 5–1 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:32What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Taranko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Taranko
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Taranko 1512 vs Kubos 1485
Taranko
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Taranko 40% vs Kubos 80%
Kubos
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Taranko 50% vs Kubos 70%
Kubos
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Taranko +2 · Kubos +3
Kubos
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Taranko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTaranko 1.53 / Kubos 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Taranko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037464
Taranko1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 18 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 12 of 17
Kubos2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 199
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 117
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTaranko5wins
AwayKubos1wins
3 of 6 to a deciderTaranko leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTaranko100%3 of 3
AwayKubos33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Taranko3Kubos3n = 6split evenly
S2Taranko4Kubos2n = 6Taranko took 4 of 6
S3Taranko3Kubos3n = 6split evenly
S4Taranko2Kubos2n = 4split evenly
S5Taranko3Kubos0n = 3Taranko took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricTarankoKubosT − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match42.339.3+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTarankoKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 155 vs 369 / 72249%51.1%76 / 155 vs 369 / 722Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TarankoTaranko 1.53/Kubos 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62%
Taranko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Taranko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 29 · 06:15M. Taranko—311114113F. Kubos—11771172
WJun 6 · 07:15M. Taranko—11118113F. Kubos—921161
WMay 24 · 07:15M. Taranko—1111113F. Kubos—6560
WMay 3 · 08:13M. Taranko—1117148153F. Kubos—8191211132
WMay 3 · 06:15M. Taranko—1312811113F. Kubos—151011792
LApr 26 · 07:15M. Taranko—6950F. Kubos—1111113
M. Taranko10
LSep 6 · 08:29L. Stoces1.221112113M. Taranko4.0051070LSep 6 · 07:15M. Taranko1.917860T. Hanke1.801111113WSep 6 · 06:15M. Taranko2.504111410143L. Stoces1.501191212122LSep 6 · 05:15M. Taranko2.104960D. Brichacek1.671111113LAug 29 · 08:23L. Hendrych2.101611911113M. Taranko1.67146111392WAug 29 · 07:15M. Taranko1.80121299113L. Hendrych1.911010111162WAug 29 · 05:15M. Taranko2.101191211123T. Bertho1.67911146102WAug 22 · 08:39J. Snr2.63511991M. Taranko1.4411711113LAug 22 · 07:15M. Taranko1.361111119142J. Snr3.00613811163LAug 22 · 06:15M. Taranko1.671313271S. Kalensky2.10151111113
F. Kubos10
WSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870WSep 5 · 14:30L. Hendrych1.578890F. Kubos2.251111113WSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293WSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 20:00S. Kalensky1.73111139113F. Kubos2.0069111142LSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572WAug 29 · 08:54T. Bertho1.9114911111F. Kubos1.8016119133LAug 29 · 07:45F. Kubos1.80111111662T. Bertho1.91581311113
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