TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067585
Played Sep 3Finished
Marek Cizek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012119117811115
Filip Kubos
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:19 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeMarek Cizek to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Cizek above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 95 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Marek Cizek at 66.1%
95 points played in total.
H2H Marek Cizek 6–2 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:19What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cizek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Cizek
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1473 vs Kubos 1477
Kubos
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Kubos 40%
Kubos
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 50% vs Kubos 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -3 · Kubos -1
Cizek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Cizek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 1.44 / Kubos 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Cizek)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13067585
Cizek1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 34 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it86% 18 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Kubos2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog44% won 87 of 197
Down 0–1, comes back24% 28 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeCizek6wins
AwayKubos2wins
3 of 8 to a deciderCizek leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizek60%3 of 5
AwayKubos0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek5Kubos3n = 8Cizek took 5 of 8
S2Cizek5Kubos3n = 8Cizek took 5 of 8
S3Cizek5Kubos3n = 8Cizek took 5 of 8
S4Cizek6Kubos2n = 8Cizek took 6 of 8
S5Cizek1Kubos2n = 3Kubos took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home563%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricCizekKubosC − KBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.138.2+4.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 295 vs 366 / 71447.5%51.3%140 / 295 vs 366 / 714Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekCizek 1.44/Kubos 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 6 · 10:00M. Cizek—11115113F. Kubos—681171
WJul 5 · 10:00M. Cizek—14911113F. Kubos—1211971
WJul 4 · 21:04M. Cizek—111111113F. Kubos—132771
WJul 4 · 18:30M. Cizek—11611113F. Kubos—811471
WJun 20 · 14:15M. Cizek—91111113F. Kubos—111781
LMay 29 · 20:25M. Cizek—131361052F. Kubos—11111112113
LMay 29 · 17:15M. Cizek—11117782F. Kubos—681111113
WApr 5 · 18:15M. Cizek—481112113F. Kubos—111191052
M. Cizek10
LSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761WSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek2.00712118113Z. Kuksa1.73111031182LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113LSep 5 · 05:30M. Cizek1.83991291J. Juppa1.83111110113LSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172LSep 3 · 18:00M. Cizek2.20113111122S. Kalensky1.61131178113LSep 1 · 20:29J. Juppa1.83121199123M. Cizek1.831081111102LSep 1 · 19:30J. Snr2.501113133M. Cizek1.50411110WSep 1 · 19:00M. Cizek1.8311137113J. Juppa1.837111191
F. Kubos10
WSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870WSep 5 · 14:30L. Hendrych1.578890F. Kubos2.251111113WSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293WSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 20:00S. Kalensky1.73111139113F. Kubos2.0069111142LSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572WAug 29 · 08:54T. Bertho1.9114911111F. Kubos1.8016119133LAug 29 · 07:45F. Kubos1.80111111662T. Bertho1.91581311113LAug 29 · 06:15M. Taranko1.53311114113F. Kubos2.3811771172
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