TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067580
Played Sep 3Finished
Marek Cizek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1113311117118211
Stepan Kalensky
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Cizek above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 88 set 5, 2-11 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 58.9%
88 points played in total.
H2H Marek Cizek 2–3 Stepan Kalensky Marek Cizek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kalensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1479 vs Kalensky 1632
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 153 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 40% vs Kalensky 100%
Kalensky
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 60% vs Kalensky 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -2 · Kalensky +5
Kalensky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kalensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.20 / Kalensky 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Kalensky)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067580
Cizek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 35 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Kalensky1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 74 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it82% 41 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeCizek2wins
AwayKalensky3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKalensky leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKalensky75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek1Kalensky4n = 5Kalensky took 4 of 5
S2Cizek1Kalensky4n = 5Kalensky took 4 of 5
S3Cizek5Kalensky0n = 5Cizek took 5 of 5
S4Cizek1Kalensky4n = 5Kalensky took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricCizekKalenskyC − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match40.043.0−3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime140 / 294 vs 286 / 51847.6%55.2%140 / 294 vs 286 / 518Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyCizek 2.20/Kalensky 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 1 · 18:00M. Cizek—8511111S. Kalensky—11119133
LAug 7 · 20:59M. Cizek—571191S. Kalensky—11116113
WAug 7 · 19:00M. Cizek—91414113S. Kalensky—11121291
LAug 3 · 18:30M. Cizek—781181S. Kalensky—11118113
WApr 17 · 18:30M. Cizek—119146113S. Kalensky—911121142
M. Cizek10
LSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761WSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek2.00712118113Z. Kuksa1.73111031182LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113LSep 5 · 05:30M. Cizek1.83991291J. Juppa1.83111110113LSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172WSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 1 · 20:29J. Juppa1.83121199123M. Cizek1.831081111102LSep 1 · 19:30J. Snr2.501113133M. Cizek1.50411110WSep 1 · 19:00M. Cizek1.8311137113J. Juppa1.837111191
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113
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