TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055479
Played Sep 1Finished
Jakub Nemecek Snr
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11413111311––––
Marek Cizek
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMarek Cizek to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Nemecek Snr above · Marek Cizek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 63 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Marek Cizek at 62.9%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nemecek Snr 3–4 Marek Cizek Jakub Nemecek Snr has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:06What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cizek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1543 vs Cizek 1503
Snr
Correct
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Cizek 80%
Cizek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 60% vs Cizek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -1 · Cizek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Cizek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cizek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 2.50 / Cizek 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Cizek)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13055479
Snr2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog64% won 9 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back29% 2 of 7
Cizek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 33 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeSnr3wins
AwayCizek4wins
3 of 7 to a deciderCizek leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCizek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr2Cizek5n = 7Cizek took 5 of 7
S2Snr2Cizek5n = 7Cizek took 5 of 7
S3Snr3Cizek4n = 7Cizek took 4 of 7
S4Snr3Cizek2n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
S5Snr2Cizek1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricSnrCizekS − CBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.140.6−2.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrCizekBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 139 vs 140 / 29243.2%48%60 / 139 vs 140 / 292Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CizekSnr 2.50/Cizek 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Cizek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 24 · 18:45J. Snr—8980M. Cizek—1111113
WMar 10 · 19:30J. Snr—911411123M. Cizek—119114102
LDec 23 · 11:00J. Snr—77111282M. Cizek—1111910113
LAug 9 · 09:10J. Snr—11980M. Cizek—1311113
WAug 9 · 06:00J. Snr—11811113M. Cizek—811681
WJul 12 · 19:30J. Snr—611138113M. Cizek—117111142
LJun 8 · 08:00J. Snr—1163121M. Cizek—61111143
J. Snr10
LSep 3 · 21:13S. Kalensky1.7361111113J. Snr2.00118871WSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172LSep 3 · 18:30J. Snr2.0061111242S. Kalensky1.73117811113WSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572LSep 1 · 20:58S. Kalensky1.8371113113J. Snr1.831181151LSep 1 · 18:30J. Snr1.8081151152S. Kalensky1.91114119113WSep 1 · 17:30J. Snr2.20122911113J. Juppa1.61101111632WAug 26 · 21:08V. Herrmann1.6110440J. Snr2.201211113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Tichy1.671118711102J. Snr2.101316118123LAug 26 · 19:00J. Snr2.509117101V. Herrmann1.5011911123
M. Cizek10
LSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761WSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek2.00712118113Z. Kuksa1.73111031182LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113LSep 5 · 05:30M. Cizek1.83991291J. Juppa1.83111110113LSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172WSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 3 · 18:00M. Cizek2.20113111122S. Kalensky1.61131178113LSep 1 · 20:29J. Juppa1.83121199123M. Cizek1.831081111102WSep 1 · 19:00M. Cizek1.8311137113J. Juppa1.837111191
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