TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13014962
Played Aug 26Finished
Jakub Nemecek Snr
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111197111012––
Vit Herrmann
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:12 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Nemecek Snr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Nemecek Snr above · Vit Herrmann below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 80 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Jakub Nemecek Snr at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nemecek Snr 8–5 Vit Herrmann Vit Herrmann has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:12What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Herrmann
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-5 in 13
Snr
Wrong
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1526 vs Herrmann 1599
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Herrmann 80%
Herrmann
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 60% vs Herrmann 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +1 · Herrmann +4
Herrmann
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Herrmann) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Herrmann form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 2.50 / Herrmann 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Herrmann)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13014962
Snr2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog62% won 8 of 13
Down 0–1, comes back33% 2 of 6
Herrmann1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite51% won 41 of 80
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it70% 30 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnr5wins
AwayHerrmann5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr50%4 of 8
AwayHerrmannn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr8Herrmann2n = 10Snr took 8 of 10
S2Snr6Herrmann4n = 10Snr took 6 of 10
S3Snr3Herrmann7n = 10Herrmann took 7 of 10
S4Snr5Herrmann3n = 8Snr took 5 of 8
S5Snr1Herrmann3n = 4Herrmann took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnrHerrmannS − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.638.4+2.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrHerrmannBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 142 vs 205 / 43542.3%47.1%60 / 142 vs 205 / 435Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HerrmannSnr 2.50/Herrmann 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Herrmann · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 1 · 13:00J. Snr—12861142V. Herrmann—1011118113
LFeb 1 · 13:18J. Snr—1185101V. Herrmann—71111113
LFeb 1 · 10:15J. Snr—1161181V. Herrmann—81113113
LJan 11 · 12:30J. Snr—1311101172V. Herrmann—157127113
WSep 14 · 16:22J. Snr—11129113V. Herrmann—8101161
WSep 14 · 13:15J. Snr—1111113V. Herrmann—7860
WAug 16 · 16:40J. Snr—1111123V. Herrmann—75100
LAug 16 · 14:30J. Snr—111111692V. Herrmann—891311113
WAug 3 · 14:00J. Snr—117411113V. Herrmann—31111882
WJul 26 · 16:25J. Snr—81111113V. Herrmann—115291
J. Snr10
LSep 3 · 21:13S. Kalensky1.7361111113J. Snr2.00118871WSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172LSep 3 · 18:30J. Snr2.0061111242S. Kalensky1.73117811113WSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572LSep 1 · 20:58S. Kalensky1.8371113113J. Snr1.831181151WSep 1 · 19:30J. Snr2.501113133M. Cizek1.50411110LSep 1 · 18:30J. Snr1.8081151152S. Kalensky1.91114119113WSep 1 · 17:30J. Snr2.20122911113J. Juppa1.61101111632WAug 26 · 21:08V. Herrmann1.6110440J. Snr2.201211113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Tichy1.671118711102J. Snr2.101316118123
V. Herrmann10
WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 26 · 21:08V. Herrmann1.6110440J. Snr2.201211113
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