TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067611
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Nemecek Snr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611117118211411
Stepan Kalensky
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:20 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJakub Nemecek Snr above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 82 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Nemecek Snr 4–4 Stepan Kalensky Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kalensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1554 vs Kalensky 1632
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Kalensky 100%
Kalensky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 60% vs Kalensky 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +1 · Kalensky +5
Kalensky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 2.00 / Kalensky 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kalensky)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13067611
Snr2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog67% won 10 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back33% 2 of 6
Kalensky1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 74 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it82% 41 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSnr4wins
AwayKalensky4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr60%3 of 5
AwayKalensky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr5Kalensky3n = 8Snr took 5 of 8
S2Snr4Kalensky4n = 8split evenly
S3Snr5Kalensky3n = 8Snr took 5 of 8
S4Snr4Kalensky2n = 6Snr took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSnrKalenskyS − KBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match38.836.9+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 142 vs 286 / 51843.7%55.2%62 / 142 vs 286 / 518Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskySnr 2.00/Kalensky 1.73
Hit
What we said
54%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 1 · 20:58J. Snr—1181151S. Kalensky—71113113
LSep 1 · 18:30J. Snr—81151152S. Kalensky—114119113
WAug 26 · 18:00J. Snr—1111143S. Kalensky—75120
LAug 22 · 05:45J. Snr—12610101S. Kalensky—101112123
WMar 12 · 18:30J. Snr—11911113S. Kalensky—611661
LMar 5 · 21:58J. Snr—58111192S. Kalensky—111158113
WMar 5 · 21:00J. Snr—1111123S. Kalensky—99100
WFeb 19 · 20:30J. Snr—81111113S. Kalensky—118881
J. Snr10
LSep 3 · 21:13S. Kalensky1.7361111113J. Snr2.00118871WSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172WSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572LSep 1 · 20:58S. Kalensky1.8371113113J. Snr1.831181151WSep 1 · 19:30J. Snr2.501113133M. Cizek1.50411110LSep 1 · 18:30J. Snr1.8081151152S. Kalensky1.91114119113WSep 1 · 17:30J. Snr2.20122911113J. Juppa1.61101111632WAug 26 · 21:08V. Herrmann1.6110440J. Snr2.201211113WAug 26 · 19:30J. Tichy1.671118711102J. Snr2.101316118123LAug 26 · 19:00J. Snr2.509117101V. Herrmann1.5011911123
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293WSep 3 · 21:13S. Kalensky1.7361111113J. Snr2.00118871WSep 1 · 20:58S. Kalensky1.8371113113J. Snr1.831181151WSep 1 · 18:30J. Snr1.8081151152S. Kalensky1.91114119113
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