TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084168
Played Sep 6Finished
Vit Herrmann
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1412911116119––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVit Herrmann above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Vit Herrmann 7–7 Stepan Kalensky Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kalensky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Herrmann 1644 vs Kalensky 1562
Herrmann
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Herrmann 60% vs Kalensky 20%
Herrmann
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Herrmann 50% vs Kalensky 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Herrmann -1 · Kalensky -3
Kalensky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kalensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHerrmann 1.91 / Kalensky 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kalensky)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084168
Herrmann1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 65 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back31% 18 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Kalensky1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 78 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 46 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHerrmann5wins
AwayKalensky5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHerrmann62.5%5 of 8
AwayKalenskyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Herrmann8Kalensky2n = 10Herrmann took 8 of 10
S2Herrmann5Kalensky5n = 10split evenly
S3Herrmann5Kalensky5n = 10split evenly
S4Herrmann2Kalensky7n = 9Kalensky took 7 of 9
S5Herrmann2Kalensky2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHerrmannKalenskyH − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.240.3−2.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHerrmannKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 441 vs 287 / 52448.8%54.8%215 / 441 vs 287 / 524Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyHerrmann 1.91/Kalensky 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Herrmann won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann—14911113S. Kalensky—1211691
WAug 30 · 15:15V. Herrmann—111183S. Kalensky—3870
LAug 26 · 20:00V. Herrmann—11114622S. Kalensky—891111113
WAug 21 · 20:00V. Herrmann—119118113S. Kalensky—51161192
LAug 13 · 20:28V. Herrmann—11115442S. Kalensky—881111113
LAug 13 · 18:30V. Herrmann—5511101S. Kalensky—11117123
LAug 7 · 17:30V. Herrmann—8111181S. Kalensky—11813103
LJul 12 · 15:30V. Herrmann—117461S. Kalensky—71111113
WApr 26 · 16:44V. Herrmann—12511113S. Kalensky—1011891
WApr 26 · 13:15V. Herrmann—1111910113S. Kalensky—87111272
V. Herrmann10
WSep 6 · 13:00J. Juppa1.50911791V. Herrmann2.5011811113LSep 6 · 10:30V. Herrmann1.80891181J. Juppa1.9111113113WSep 6 · 09:30V. Herrmann1.83111011113T. Bertho1.83512931WSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103WSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103LSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:45V. Herrmann2.0011136113V. Lopata1.739111171LAug 31 · 20:29V. Herrmann1.9151191152O. Chadima1.80116118113LAug 31 · 19:45P. Orlowski1.44121211113V. Herrmann2.631014951WAug 31 · 18:45O. Chadima1.831010110V. Herrmann1.831212133
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113WSep 5 · 06:00Z. Kuksa2.201011111182S. Kalensky1.61121388113
Upcoming Matches
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S. Kalensky
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