TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079226
Played Sep 5Finished
Marek Cizek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511511––––
Stepan Kalensky
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeStepan Kalensky to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMarek Cizek above · Stepan Kalensky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 51 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Stepan Kalensky at 62.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Marek Cizek 2–5 Stepan Kalensky Marek Cizek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kalensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Kalensky
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1442 vs Kalensky 1572
Kalensky
Correct
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Kalensky 100%
Kalensky
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 30% vs Kalensky 100%
Kalensky
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -3 · Kalensky +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kalensky) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kalensky form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.10 / Kalensky 1.67
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kalensky)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13079226
Cizek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 36 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Kalensky1.67
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 78 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it81% 46 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeCizek2wins
AwayKalensky5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderKalensky leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCizekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKalensky83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek1Kalensky6n = 7Kalensky took 6 of 7
S2Cizek1Kalensky6n = 7Kalensky took 6 of 7
S3Cizek6Kalensky1n = 7Cizek took 6 of 7
S4Cizek2Kalensky4n = 6Kalensky took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricCizekKalenskyC − KBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match36.642.6−6.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKalenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 302 vs 288 / 52547%54.9%142 / 302 vs 288 / 525Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KalenskyCizek 2.10/Kalensky 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.8%
Kalensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kalensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek—8550S. Kalensky—1111113
LSep 3 · 18:00M. Cizek—113111122S. Kalensky—131178113
LSep 1 · 18:00M. Cizek—8511111S. Kalensky—11119133
LAug 7 · 20:59M. Cizek—571191S. Kalensky—11116113
WAug 7 · 19:00M. Cizek—91414113S. Kalensky—11121291
LAug 3 · 18:30M. Cizek—781181S. Kalensky—11118113
WApr 17 · 18:30M. Cizek—119146113S. Kalensky—911121142
M. Cizek10
LSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761WSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek2.00712118113Z. Kuksa1.73111031182LSep 5 · 05:30M. Cizek1.83991291J. Juppa1.83111110113LSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172WSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 3 · 18:00M. Cizek2.20113111122S. Kalensky1.61131178113LSep 1 · 20:29J. Juppa1.83121199123M. Cizek1.831081111102LSep 1 · 19:30J. Snr2.501113133M. Cizek1.50411110WSep 1 · 19:00M. Cizek1.8311137113J. Juppa1.837111191
S. Kalensky10
WSep 6 · 12:31T. Bertho1.6791060S. Kalensky2.071112113LSep 6 · 11:30V. Herrmann1.9114911113S. Kalensky1.801211691LSep 6 · 11:00S. Kalensky1.8341191192T. Bertho1.83118119113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kalensky2.25891111122J. Juppa1.57111158143LSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 15:30L. Hendrych2.6391141152S. Kalensky1.44116115113LSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293LSep 5 · 08:59J. Juppa1.9171118113S. Kalensky1.801191671LSep 5 · 08:00S. Kalensky1.91741181J. Juppa1.8011117113WSep 3 · 18:00M. Cizek2.20113111122S. Kalensky1.61131178113
Upcoming Matches
M. Cizek
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S. Kalensky
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