TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078877
Played Sep 5Finished
Marek Cizek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7111210113811118
Zdenek Kuksa
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:34 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Kuksa to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMarek Cizek above · Zdenek Kuksa below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 92 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Zdenek Kuksa at 56.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Marek Cizek 2–1 Zdenek Kuksa Zdenek Kuksa has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kuksa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cizek 1442 vs Kuksa 1503
Kuksa
Wrong
both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cizek 20% vs Kuksa 40%
Kuksa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cizek 20% vs Kuksa 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cizek -4 · Kuksa -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kuksa) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuksa form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCizek 2.00 / Kuksa 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kuksa)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13078877
Cizek2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 36 of 93
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 34
Kuksa1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 80 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it87% 41 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it75% 63 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeCizek2wins
AwayKuksa1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderCizek leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cizek1Kuksa2n = 3Kuksa took 2 of 3
S2Cizek2Kuksa1n = 3Cizek took 2 of 3
S3Cizek1Kuksa2n = 3Kuksa took 2 of 3
S4Cizek1Kuksa2n = 3Kuksa took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricCizekKuksaC − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match44.342.3+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCizekKuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 302 vs 251 / 49847%50.4%142 / 302 vs 251 / 498Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuksaCizek 2.00/Kuksa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kuksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 5 · 08:29M. Cizek—713761Z. Kuksa—111111113
WSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek—712118113Z. Kuksa—111031182
WAug 9 · 08:00M. Cizek—119911113Z. Kuksa—51111672
M. Cizek10
LSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761LSep 5 · 06:30M. Cizek2.108550S. Kalensky1.671111113LSep 5 · 05:30M. Cizek1.83991291J. Juppa1.83111110113LSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172WSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 3 · 18:00M. Cizek2.20113111122S. Kalensky1.61131178113LSep 1 · 20:29J. Juppa1.83121199123M. Cizek1.831081111102LSep 1 · 19:30J. Snr2.501113133M. Cizek1.50411110WSep 1 · 19:00M. Cizek1.8311137113J. Juppa1.837111191
Z. Kuksa10
WSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761LSep 5 · 07:00Z. Kuksa1.80111371392J. Juppa1.918151111113LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Kuksa2.201011111182S. Kalensky1.61121388113LAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:45M. Soukup2.101011111182Z. Kuksa1.67121388113WAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113LAug 27 · 13:15T. Hanke2.0011114113Z. Kuksa1.73751161LAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131LAug 24 · 15:00Z. Kuksa1.7311911692R. Merkl2.00511911113
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Z. Kuksa
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