TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12482395
Played Aug 24Finished
Zdenek Kuksa
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115911119611911
Roman Merkl
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Kuksa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZdenek Kuksa above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Zdenek Kuksa at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Kuksa 8–6 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kuksa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Kuksa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuksa 1559 vs Merkl 1569
Merkl
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuksa 60% vs Merkl 40%
Kuksa
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuksa 70% vs Merkl 40%
Kuksa
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuksa +1 · Merkl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kuksa) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuksa 1.73 / Merkl 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kuksa)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12482395
Kuksa1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 83 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it84% 42 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it76% 64 of 84
Merkl2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 93 of 184
Down 0–1, comes back40% 44 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuksa7wins
AwayMerkl3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKuksa leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuksa71.4%5 of 7
AwayMerkl33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuksa7Merkl3n = 10Kuksa took 7 of 10
S2Kuksa6Merkl4n = 10Kuksa took 6 of 10
S3Kuksa5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S4Kuksa5Merkl2n = 7Kuksa took 5 of 7
S5Kuksa2Merkl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuksaMerklK − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.835.3+5.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuksaMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime264 / 511 vs 271 / 56051.7%48.4%264 / 511 vs 271 / 560Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuksaKuksa 1.73/Merkl 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Kuksa · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 17 · 08:33Z. Kuksa—1381110112R. Merkl—1111512133
WJul 17 · 07:00Z. Kuksa—11114113R. Merkl—611171
WJun 19 · 08:19Z. Kuksa—121378113R. Merkl—1011111162
LJun 19 · 05:15Z. Kuksa—10860R. Merkl—1211113
WJun 12 · 16:58Z. Kuksa—11411133R. Merkl—5119111
LJun 12 · 13:30Z. Kuksa—1110811102R. Merkl—612118123
WMay 23 · 07:15Z. Kuksa—1411123R. Merkl—127100
WMay 2 · 07:45Z. Kuksa—411811113R. Merkl—11111512
WMay 1 · 08:58Z. Kuksa—1111113R. Merkl—9940
WMay 1 · 07:00Z. Kuksa—61111113R. Merkl—115661
Z. Kuksa10
WSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761LSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek2.00712118113Z. Kuksa1.73111031182LSep 5 · 07:00Z. Kuksa1.80111371392J. Juppa1.918151111113LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Kuksa2.201011111182S. Kalensky1.61121388113LAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:45M. Soukup2.101011111182Z. Kuksa1.67121388113WAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113LAug 27 · 13:15T. Hanke2.0011114113Z. Kuksa1.73751161LAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113
Upcoming Matches
Z. Kuksa
R. Merkl
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