TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13022624
Played Aug 27Finished
Ondrej Horak
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131179111210611
Zdenek Kuksa
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:55 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOndrej Horak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Zdenek Kuksa below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 101 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Horak at 58.9%
101 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Horak 2–1 Zdenek Kuksa Zdenek Kuksa has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:55What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Horak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horak 1506 vs Kuksa 1517
Kuksa
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 20% vs Kuksa 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 30% vs Kuksa 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak +1 · Kuksa -4
Kuksa
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuksa form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 1.73 / Kuksa 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Horak)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13022624
Horak1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 16 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it58% 7 of 12
Kuksa2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 56 of 111
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHorak2wins
AwayKuksa1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderHorak leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horak2Kuksa1n = 3Horak took 2 of 3
S2Horak3Kuksa0n = 3Horak took 3 of 3
S3Horak2Kuksa1n = 3Horak took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHorakKuksaH − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match42.337.0+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakKuksaBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 193 vs 261 / 51147.7%51.1%92 / 193 vs 261 / 511Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorakHorak 1.73/Kuksa 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Horak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuksa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WNov 14 · 16:30O. Horak—1111103Z. Kuksa—4760
LNov 7 · 17:54O. Horak—121171092Z. Kuksa—1091112113
WNov 7 · 16:00O. Horak—611117113Z. Kuksa—11941162
O. Horak10
LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak1.91111197113M. Soukup1.8079111172LAug 21 · 16:14D. Marasek1.25111210113O. Horak3.752101231LAug 21 · 15:15P. Semrad1.401111113O. Horak2.757380LAug 21 · 14:45O. Horak2.75119671T. Hybl1.4051111113
Z. Kuksa10
WSep 5 · 08:29Z. Kuksa1.80111111113M. Cizek1.91713761LSep 5 · 07:30M. Cizek2.00712118113Z. Kuksa1.73111031182LSep 5 · 07:00Z. Kuksa1.80111371392J. Juppa1.918151111113LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Kuksa2.201011111182S. Kalensky1.61121388113LAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:45M. Soukup2.101011111182Z. Kuksa1.67121388113LAug 27 · 13:15T. Hanke2.0011114113Z. Kuksa1.73751161LAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131LAug 24 · 15:00Z. Kuksa1.7311911692R. Merkl2.00511911113
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