TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12467085
Played Aug 21Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113118––––
Ondrej Horak
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:21 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Ondrej Horak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 51 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Petr Semrad at 73.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 2–1 Ondrej Horak Ondrej Horak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1696 vs Horak 1497
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 200 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 80% vs Horak 0%
Semrad
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 80% vs Horak 40%
Semrad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad +1 · Horak -5
Horak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Semrad) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horak form (0%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.40 / Horak 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Semrad)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12467085
Semrad1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 88 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it67% 59 of 88
Horak2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 31 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSemrad2wins
AwayHorak1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSemrad leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad2Horak1n = 3Semrad took 2 of 3
S2Semrad2Horak1n = 3Semrad took 2 of 3
S3Semrad3Horak0n = 3Semrad took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSemradHorakS − HBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.727.0+10.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradHorakBasisWin rate · lifetime270 / 532 vs 91 / 19250.8%47.4%270 / 532 vs 91 / 192Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.40/Horak 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 21 · 15:15P. Semrad—1111113O. Horak—7380
WApr 15 · 16:55P. Semrad—1111113O. Horak—6620
LApr 15 · 13:45P. Semrad—861111112O. Horak—111168133
P. Semrad10
LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113
O. Horak10
LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak1.91111197113M. Soukup1.8079111172LAug 21 · 16:14D. Marasek1.25111210113O. Horak3.752101231LAug 21 · 14:45O. Horak2.75119671T. Hybl1.4051111113
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