TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067344
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Simek
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5111214117711––
Petr Semrad
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Petr Semrad below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Petr Semrad at 62.9%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 2–3 Petr Semrad Jakub Simek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1507 vs Semrad 1684
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 40% vs Semrad 60%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 30% vs Semrad 50%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek +2 · Semrad +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Semrad) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semrad form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 2.75 / Semrad 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Semrad)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067344
Simek2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 7 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Semrad1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 90 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it91% 38 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it68% 59 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSimek2wins
AwaySemrad3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderSemrad leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimek50%2 of 4
AwaySemradn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek4Semrad1n = 5Simek took 4 of 5
S2Simek1Semrad4n = 5Semrad took 4 of 5
S3Simek2Semrad3n = 5Semrad took 3 of 5
S4Simek1Semrad4n = 5Semrad took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSimekSemradSimek − SemradBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match33.241.6−8.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekSemradBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 146 vs 272 / 53749.3%50.7%72 / 146 vs 272 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSimek 2.75/Semrad 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.7%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 24 · 10:45J. Simek—611411P. Semrad—11911113
LMar 19 · 11:45J. Simek—117391P. Semrad—51111113
LFeb 18 · 17:50J. Simek—138811P. Semrad—111111103
WFeb 18 · 15:45J. Simek—11811103P. Semrad—711971
WFeb 5 · 15:15J. Simek—123116123P. Semrad—1011911102
J. Simek10
WSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111LSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113WSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113WSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WSep 3 · 16:34J. Simek1.4411711113T. Hybl2.63611751WSep 3 · 15:30T. Hybl1.7311611672J. Simek2.00511811113LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WAug 25 · 20:58P. Maly1.91118551J. Simek1.8071111113WAug 25 · 20:00J. Simek1.8341311113P. Maly1.831111591LAug 25 · 18:30P. Hala2.001111113J. Simek1.737970
P. Semrad10
LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:15P. Semrad1.50911891P. Hala2.5011411113
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