TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073939
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Simek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210511115511811
Martin Bruk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:51 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Bruk to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Martin Bruk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Bruk at 60.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 2–4 Martin Bruk Jakub Simek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:51What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bruk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Bruk
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1545 vs Bruk 1511
Simek
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 80% vs Bruk 40%
Simek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 60% vs Bruk 30%
Simek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek +4 · Bruk -1
Simek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bruk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bruk form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 1.83 / Bruk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bruk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13073939
Simek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Bruk1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSimek2wins
AwayBruk4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderBruk leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBruk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek2Bruk4n = 6Bruk took 4 of 6
S2Simek3Bruk3n = 6split evenly
S3Simek2Bruk4n = 6Bruk took 4 of 6
S4Simek3Bruk2n = 5Simek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSimekBrukS − BBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match35.339.2−3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekBrukBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 152 vs 200 / 38550%52%76 / 152 vs 200 / 385Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrukSimek 1.83/Bruk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Bruk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Bruk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LFeb 28 · 11:30J. Simek—711613142M. Bruk—1191111163
WFeb 13 · 11:15J. Simek—11117113M. Bruk—281181
LDec 16 · 12:15J. Simek—891191M. Bruk—11119113
LOct 15 · 14:00J. Simek—7720M. Bruk—1111113
LSep 16 · 11:45J. Simek—361161M. Bruk—11118113
WJan 23 · 15:15J. Simek—11119113M. Bruk—681171
J. Simek10
WSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113WSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WSep 3 · 16:34J. Simek1.4411711113T. Hybl2.63611751WSep 3 · 15:30T. Hybl1.7311611672J. Simek2.00511811113LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113LSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WAug 25 · 20:58P. Maly1.91118551J. Simek1.8071111113WAug 25 · 20:00J. Simek1.8341311113P. Maly1.831111591LAug 25 · 18:30P. Hala2.001111113J. Simek1.737970
M. Bruk10
LSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081WSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 16:00M. Bruk1.7396111172R. Merkl2.00111168113LAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361LAug 24 · 14:00Z. Kuksa2.25111178113M. Bruk1.5757111152LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113LAug 18 · 15:45M. Bruk2.5081090P. Semrad1.501112113LAug 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.831111143M. Bruk1.8387120
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