TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451540
Played Aug 18Finished
Dominik Marasek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181171412––––
Martin Bruk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Bruk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDominik Marasek above · Martin Bruk below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 63 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Martin Bruk at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Marasek 4–5 Martin Bruk Dominik Marasek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:51What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bruk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marasek 1613 vs Bruk 1554
Marasek
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marasek 80% vs Bruk 60%
Marasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marasek 60% vs Bruk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marasek -1 · Bruk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bruk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marasek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarasek 1.83 / Bruk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bruk)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451540
Marasek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Bruk1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeMarasek4wins
AwayBruk5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderBruk leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarasek100%3 of 3
AwayBruk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marasek3Bruk6n = 9Bruk took 6 of 9
S2Marasek5Bruk4n = 9Marasek took 5 of 9
S3Marasek5Bruk4n = 9Marasek took 5 of 9
S4Marasek3Bruk3n = 6split evenly
S5Marasek2Bruk2n = 4split evenly
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricMarasekBrukM − BBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match38.338.2+0.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarasekBrukBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 242 vs 201 / 38048.8%52.9%118 / 242 vs 201 / 380Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrukMarasek 1.83/Bruk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bruk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LMay 14 · 17:15D. Marasek—911126142M. Bruk—1151011163
LApr 29 · 14:15D. Marasek—67111182M. Bruk—111138113
WApr 14 · 16:38D. Marasek—1111211113M. Bruk—13811652
LApr 14 · 14:30D. Marasek—8860M. Bruk—1111113
WJan 22 · 15:15D. Marasek—1110811113M. Bruk—91211992
LNov 19 · 15:45D. Marasek—811981M. Bruk—11511113
LOct 22 · 15:15D. Marasek—541151M. Bruk—11117113
WJan 31 · 17:37D. Marasek—1111113M. Bruk—9670
WJan 31 · 16:00D. Marasek—1115113M. Bruk—31350
D. Marasek10
WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113WSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad1.441213161342D. Marasek2.6310151811113WAug 24 · 17:03R. Merkl2.50661181D. Marasek1.5011118113WAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131
M. Bruk10
LSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081WSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 16:00M. Bruk1.7396111172R. Merkl2.00111168113LAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361LAug 24 · 14:00Z. Kuksa2.25111178113M. Bruk1.5757111152LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113LAug 18 · 15:45M. Bruk2.5081090P. Semrad1.501112113
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