TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055125
Played Sep 1Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611911811––––
Dominik Marasek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 1–0 Dominik Marasek Dominik Marasek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Marasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1664 vs Marasek 1647
Kolman
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 60% vs Marasek 100%
Marasek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 50% vs Marasek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman +2 · Marasek +5
Marasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kolman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marasek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.83 / Marasek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kolman)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13055125
Kolman1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Marasek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKolman1wins
AwayMarasek0wins
Kolman leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKolmanMarasekK − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match42.037.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 668 vs 115 / 23453.4%49.2%357 / 668 vs 115 / 234Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanKolman 1.83/Marasek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WApr 8 · 16:00L. Kolman—11128113D. Marasek—7101191
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163
D. Marasek10
WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad1.441213161342D. Marasek2.6310151811113WAug 24 · 17:03R. Merkl2.50661181D. Marasek1.5011118113WAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131WAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361
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