TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067646
Played Sep 3Finished
Jakub Simek
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911911––––
Dominik Marasek
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDominik Marasek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJakub Simek above · Dominik Marasek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Dominik Marasek at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Simek 4–5 Dominik Marasek Jakub Simek has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:30What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Marasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Simek 1501 vs Marasek 1707
Marasek
Correct
both rated, 206 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Simek 40% vs Marasek 100%
Marasek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Simek 30% vs Marasek 100%
Marasek
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Simek -1 · Marasek +5
Marasek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Marasek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marasek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSimek 2.63 / Marasek 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Marasek)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067646
Simek2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 7 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back27% 3 of 11
Marasek1.44
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite55% won 30 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it80% 24 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSimek4wins
AwayMarasek5wins
4 of 9 to a deciderMarasek leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSimek75%3 of 4
AwayMarasek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Simek4Marasek5n = 9Marasek took 5 of 9
S2Simek3Marasek6n = 9Marasek took 6 of 9
S3Simek6Marasek3n = 9Simek took 6 of 9
S4Simek6Marasek3n = 9Simek took 6 of 9
S5Simek1Marasek3n = 4Marasek took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricSimekMarasekS − MBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match40.042.1−2.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSimekMarasekBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 147 vs 120 / 23949%50.2%72 / 147 vs 120 / 239Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarasekSimek 2.63/Marasek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Marasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LApr 16 · 18:45J. Simek—811111272D. Marasek—1181310113
LFeb 24 · 17:28J. Simek—7714101D. Marasek—111112123
WFeb 24 · 16:30J. Simek—11612113D. Marasek—9111091
LJan 23 · 15:45J. Simek—11741172D. Marasek—711119113
WJan 15 · 16:15J. Simek—11311113D. Marasek—711481
LNov 12 · 18:05J. Simek—67111142D. Marasek—111191113
WNov 12 · 16:00J. Simek—12118113D. Marasek—1071181
LNov 7 · 14:45J. Simek—1151171D. Marasek—13116103
WApr 7 · 13:45J. Simek—611113113D. Marasek—11681172
J. Simek10
WSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111LSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113WSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113WSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WSep 3 · 16:34J. Simek1.4411711113T. Hybl2.63611751WSep 3 · 15:30T. Hybl1.7311611672J. Simek2.00511811113LSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WAug 25 · 20:58P. Maly1.91118551J. Simek1.8071111113WAug 25 · 20:00J. Simek1.8341311113P. Maly1.831111591LAug 25 · 18:30P. Hala2.001111113J. Simek1.737970
D. Marasek10
WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991LSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171WSep 3 · 13:30T. Hybl2.2597100D. Marasek1.571111123WSep 1 · 16:49D. Marasek1.611111113L. Kolman2.209540WSep 1 · 15:45D. Marasek1.8311207113M. Svitac1.836181171WSep 1 · 14:15L. Kolman1.836980D. Marasek1.831111113WSep 1 · 13:45P. Semrad1.441213161342D. Marasek2.6310151811113WAug 24 · 17:03R. Merkl2.50661181D. Marasek1.5011118113WAug 24 · 15:30D. Marasek1.61111013113Z. Kuksa2.209121131WAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361
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