TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073885
Played Sep 4Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117711611117711
Jakub Simek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Simek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Jakub Simek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jakub Simek at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 12–16 Jakub Simek Petr Provaznik has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Simek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-16 in 28
Simek
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1541 vs Simek 1534
Provaznik
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 20% vs Simek 60%
Simek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 40% vs Simek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -2 · Simek +3
Simek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Simek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.00 / Simek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Simek)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13073885
Provaznik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 34 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back35% 15 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Simek1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite36% won 5 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it60% 3 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik4wins
AwaySimek6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSimek leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik50%3 of 6
AwaySimek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik6Simek4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik8Simek2n = 10Provaznik took 8 of 10
S3Provaznik2Simek8n = 10Simek took 8 of 10
S4Provaznik3Simek5n = 8Simek took 5 of 8
S5Provaznik2Simek4n = 6Simek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikSimekP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.441.5+0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikSimekBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 487 vs 75 / 15147.4%49.7%231 / 487 vs 75 / 151Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SimekProvaznik 2.00/Simek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Simek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Simek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 10:00P. Provaznik—12113123J. Simek—10711101
WAug 5 · 11:30P. Provaznik—1111113J. Simek—6980
WFeb 24 · 14:30P. Provaznik—1113910113J. Simek—911111272
LFeb 18 · 16:15P. Provaznik—10111111112J. Simek—124134133
LNov 12 · 16:30P. Provaznik—11114992J. Simek—751111113
LNov 7 · 17:47P. Provaznik—13115962J. Simek—1131111113
LNov 7 · 15:45P. Provaznik—6111081J. Simek—11812113
LNov 5 · 11:00P. Provaznik—816100J. Simek—1118123
LOct 21 · 18:00P. Provaznik—11117842J. Simek—391111113
WOct 15 · 17:10P. Provaznik—851112113J. Simek—111131032
P. Provaznik10
WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113LSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113WSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113LSep 1 · 18:45T. Hucko1.67911114113P. Provaznik2.1011981162LSep 1 · 17:15P. Maly1.7361111133P. Provaznik2.001187111WAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113LAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103LAug 28 · 18:15P. Provaznik2.509101121M. Hajek1.5011126113
J. Simek10
WSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111LSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113WSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WSep 3 · 16:34J. Simek1.4411711113T. Hybl2.63611751WSep 3 · 15:30T. Hybl1.7311611672J. Simek2.00511811113LSep 3 · 15:00J. Simek2.638990D. Marasek1.441111113LSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WAug 25 · 20:58P. Maly1.91118551J. Simek1.8071111113WAug 25 · 20:00J. Simek1.8341311113P. Maly1.831111591LAug 25 · 18:30P. Hala2.001111113J. Simek1.737970
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