TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031321
Played Aug 28Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111012116211––
Miroslav Hajek
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:40 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 72 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 64.1%
72 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 30–50 Miroslav Hajek Petr Provaznik has won 30 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Hajek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-50 in 80
Hajek
Correct
gap of 20 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1569 vs Hajek 1643
Hajek
Correct
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Hajek 60%
Hajek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 60% vs Hajek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +2 · Hajek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Hajek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.50 / Hajek 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Hajek)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13031321
Provaznik2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 34 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back36% 15 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 20
Hajek1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 72 of 129
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it76% 54 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik4wins
AwayHajek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik66.7%4 of 6
AwayHajek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik6Hajek4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik1Hajek9n = 10Hajek took 9 of 10
S3Provaznik4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S4Provaznik2Hajek6n = 8Hajek took 6 of 8
S5Provaznik4Hajek1n = 5Provaznik took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikHajekP − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.141.5−3.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime230 / 482 vs 362 / 66847.7%54.2%230 / 482 vs 362 / 668Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.640.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekProvaznik 2.50/Hajek 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.3%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hajek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 18:15P. Provaznik—9101121M. Hajek—11126113
LAug 14 · 10:00P. Provaznik—11109101M. Hajek—71211123
WMar 3 · 22:08P. Provaznik—116128113M. Hajek—711101132
LMar 3 · 21:00P. Provaznik—1111131182M. Hajek—613159113
WFeb 16 · 15:00P. Provaznik—117118113M. Hajek—81141182
LJan 7 · 20:30P. Provaznik—9870M. Hajek—1111113
WDec 17 · 18:15P. Provaznik—121144103M. Hajek—106111182
LDec 11 · 12:45P. Provaznik—761141M. Hajek—11118113
LDec 3 · 19:30P. Provaznik—6670M. Hajek—1111113
WNov 5 · 21:55P. Provaznik—118611113M. Hajek—51111692
P. Provaznik10
WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113LSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113LSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113WSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113LSep 1 · 18:45T. Hucko1.67911114113P. Provaznik2.1011981162LSep 1 · 17:15P. Maly1.7361111133P. Provaznik2.001187111WAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113LAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103
M. Hajek10
LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113WSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123LSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371LSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101WSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113LSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113
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