TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073898
Played Sep 4Finished
Petr Provaznik
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1416611119811––
Martin Bruk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Bruk to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Provaznik above · Martin Bruk below
Set 1 · 14-16
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 86 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Martin Bruk at 57.3%
86 points played in total.
H2H Petr Provaznik 7–13 Martin Bruk Petr Provaznik has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bruk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-13 in 20
Bruk
Correct
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1554 vs Bruk 1510
Provaznik
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Bruk 20%
Provaznik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 40% vs Bruk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -1 · Bruk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bruk) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bruk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.00 / Bruk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Bruk)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13073898
Provaznik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 34 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back35% 15 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Bruk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 48 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 33 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik4wins
AwayBruk6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBruk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik75%3 of 4
AwayBruk83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik4Bruk6n = 10Bruk took 6 of 10
S2Provaznik3Bruk7n = 10Bruk took 7 of 10
S3Provaznik4Bruk6n = 10Bruk took 6 of 10
S4Provaznik2Bruk4n = 6Bruk took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikBrukP − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.737.1−4.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikBrukBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 486 vs 199 / 38347.5%52%231 / 486 vs 199 / 383Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrukProvaznik 2.00/Bruk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Bruk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bruk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 16:18P. Provaznik—9111110113M. Bruk—11691272
LAug 18 · 13:45P. Provaznik—871141M. Bruk—11116113
WMay 14 · 19:45P. Provaznik—11612113M. Bruk—9111091
LMar 5 · 15:00P. Provaznik—8790M. Bruk—1111113
WMar 3 · 20:00P. Provaznik—1212113M. Bruk—101080
LJan 1 · 21:50P. Provaznik—8970M. Bruk—1111113
WJan 1 · 18:40P. Provaznik—117811113M. Bruk—91111282
LOct 21 · 12:00P. Provaznik—111941M. Bruk—51111103
LOct 19 · 10:45P. Provaznik—511471M. Bruk—11911113
LOct 15 · 15:00P. Provaznik—10660M. Bruk—1211113
P. Provaznik10
WSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113LSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113WSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113LSep 1 · 18:45T. Hucko1.67911114113P. Provaznik2.1011981162LSep 1 · 17:15P. Maly1.7361111133P. Provaznik2.001187111WAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113LAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103LAug 28 · 18:15P. Provaznik2.509101121M. Hajek1.5011126113
M. Bruk10
LSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 16:00M. Bruk1.7396111172R. Merkl2.00111168113LAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361LAug 24 · 14:00Z. Kuksa2.25111178113M. Bruk1.5757111152LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113LAug 18 · 15:45M. Bruk2.5081090P. Semrad1.501112113LAug 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.831111143M. Bruk1.8387120
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