TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12451531
Played Aug 18Finished
Martin Bruk
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111012911––––
Petr Semrad
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:50 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Bruk above · Petr Semrad below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 61 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Petr Semrad at 66.5%
61 points played in total.
H2H Martin Bruk 6–14 Petr Semrad Martin Bruk has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:50What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Semrad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Semrad
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bruk 1535 vs Semrad 1715
Semrad
Correct
both rated, 180 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bruk 60% vs Semrad 80%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bruk 60% vs Semrad 80%
Semrad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bruk -1 · Semrad +3
Semrad
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semrad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBruk 2.50 / Semrad 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 67%
Edge (Semrad)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12451531
Bruk2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 31 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Semrad1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 84 of 166
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it66% 55 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBruk3wins
AwaySemrad7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSemrad leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBruk40%2 of 5
AwaySemrad80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bruk5Semrad5n = 10split evenly
S2Bruk4Semrad6n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S3Bruk4Semrad6n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S4Bruk1Semrad4n = 5Semrad took 4 of 5
S5Bruk1Semrad2n = 3Semrad took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrukSemradB − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.737.1−2.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrukSemradBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 381 vs 269 / 53052.8%50.8%201 / 381 vs 269 / 530Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradBruk 2.50/Semrad 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Semrad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 21 · 15:00M. Bruk—1111123P. Semrad—79100
LJun 19 · 12:23M. Bruk—91011111P. Semrad—11124133
LJun 19 · 10:15M. Bruk—8550P. Semrad—1111113
WMay 5 · 14:30M. Bruk—711116113P. Semrad—11681142
LApr 29 · 16:44M. Bruk—11871362P. Semrad—5111111113
LApr 29 · 15:45M. Bruk—9870P. Semrad—1111113
LApr 14 · 16:00M. Bruk—111111952P. Semrad—481311113
WMar 21 · 16:15M. Bruk—1117113P. Semrad—71580
LJan 15 · 13:45M. Bruk—11770P. Semrad—1311113
LJan 15 · 10:15M. Bruk—115931P. Semrad—51111113
M. Bruk10
LSep 4 · 16:34M. Bruk1.6551191112P. Provaznik2.10113118113WSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081WSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 16:00M. Bruk1.7396111172R. Merkl2.00111168113LAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361LAug 24 · 14:00Z. Kuksa2.25111178113M. Bruk1.5757111152LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113LAug 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.831111143M. Bruk1.8387120
P. Semrad10
LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113
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