TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078379
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Bruk
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
511113911118111
Petr Provaznik
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
How it is goingMartin Bruk above · Petr Provaznik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 1-11
Point 81 set 5, 1-11
81 points played in total.
H2H Martin Bruk 14–7 Petr Provaznik Petr Provaznik has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Bruk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBruk 1.65 / Provaznik 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Bruk)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13078379
Bruk1.65
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 48 of 87
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 33 of 48
Provaznik2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 34 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back35% 15 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBruk6wins
AwayProvaznik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBruk leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBruk83.3%5 of 6
AwayProvaznik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bruk6Provaznik4n = 10Bruk took 6 of 10
S2Bruk7Provaznik3n = 10Bruk took 7 of 10
S3Bruk5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S4Bruk5Provaznik2n = 7Bruk took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBrukProvaznikB − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.434.4+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBrukProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 386 vs 231 / 48952.1%47.2%201 / 386 vs 231 / 489Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BrukBruk 1.65/Provaznik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55%
Bruk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 13:15M. Bruk—16119113P. Provaznik—1461181
LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk—11691272P. Provaznik—9111110113
WAug 18 · 13:45M. Bruk—11116113P. Provaznik—871141
LMay 14 · 19:45M. Bruk—9111091P. Provaznik—11612113
WMar 5 · 15:00M. Bruk—1111113P. Provaznik—8790
LMar 3 · 20:00M. Bruk—101080P. Provaznik—1212113
WJan 1 · 21:50M. Bruk—1111113P. Provaznik—8970
LJan 1 · 18:40M. Bruk—91111282P. Provaznik—117811113
WOct 21 · 12:00M. Bruk—51111103P. Provaznik—111941
WOct 19 · 10:45M. Bruk—11911113P. Provaznik—511471
M. Bruk10
WSep 4 · 15:45J. Simek1.8312511582M. Bruk1.831011511113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081WSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113WAug 24 · 16:33M. Bruk1.67611211123Z. Kuksa2.10119116102LAug 24 · 16:00M. Bruk1.7396111172R. Merkl2.00111168113LAug 24 · 14:30D. Marasek1.50111111113M. Bruk2.50881361LAug 24 · 14:00Z. Kuksa2.25111178113M. Bruk1.5757111152LAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113LAug 18 · 15:45M. Bruk2.5081090P. Semrad1.501112113LAug 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.831111143M. Bruk1.8387120
P. Provaznik10
LSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113LSep 4 · 14:15P. Provaznik2.0011761172J. Simek1.73711117113LSep 4 · 13:15P. Provaznik2.001461181M. Bruk1.7316119113LSep 1 · 20:48P. Provaznik2.751071171M. Hajek1.4012116113WSep 1 · 19:45M. Hajek1.50101170P. Provaznik2.501213113LSep 1 · 18:45T. Hucko1.67911114113P. Provaznik2.1011981162LSep 1 · 17:15P. Maly1.7361111133P. Provaznik2.001187111WAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113LAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 18 · 16:18M. Bruk1.5011691272P. Provaznik2.509111110113
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