TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060743
Played Sep 2Finished
Petr Semrad
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9119111171311911
Lukas Provaznik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Semrad to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Lukas Provaznik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 102 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Petr Semrad at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 24–23 Lukas Provaznik Lukas Provaznik has won 23 of their 47 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-23 in 47
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1675 vs Provaznik 1554
Semrad
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 60% vs Provaznik 20%
Semrad
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 50% vs Provaznik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad -1 · Provaznik -3
Provaznik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 1.83 / Provaznik 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Semrad)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13060743
Semrad1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Provaznik1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad5wins
AwayProvaznik5wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad75%3 of 4
AwayProvaznik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad4Provaznik6n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S2Semrad5Provaznik5n = 10split evenly
S3Semrad6Provaznik4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S4Semrad7Provaznik2n = 9Semrad took 7 of 9
S5Semrad3Provaznik5n = 8Provaznik took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradProvaznikS − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match46.543.5+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 536 vs 157 / 32950.6%47.7%271 / 536 vs 157 / 329Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradSemrad 1.83/Provaznik 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Provaznik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad—99111392L. Provaznik—1111711113
WJul 31 · 14:15P. Semrad—1071111113L. Provaznik—12115552
WJul 16 · 16:48P. Semrad—1191111113L. Provaznik—71113682
LJul 16 · 13:45P. Semrad—61191192L. Provaznik—116119113
LJul 13 · 15:30P. Semrad—104121592L. Provaznik—12111013113
LJul 10 · 15:15P. Semrad—21141192L. Provaznik—119117113
WJul 3 · 12:14P. Semrad—71116113L. Provaznik—1191461
LJul 3 · 09:45P. Semrad—11118592L. Provaznik—961111113
WJul 1 · 16:49P. Semrad—1111113L. Provaznik—3570
WJul 1 · 14:15P. Semrad—11121111113L. Provaznik—81461332
P. Semrad10
LSep 5 · 16:18Z. Vasatko2.50129144113P. Semrad1.501011121162WSep 5 · 15:15P. Semrad1.807111111113Z. Vasatko1.9111741382WSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860WSep 5 · 13:15P. Semrad1.9111711103L. Smazik1.80811351LSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek2.38141111113P. Semrad1.53165991WSep 3 · 16:00P. Semrad1.5011116113D. Marasek2.50561171LSep 3 · 14:30T. Hybl1.8081111133P. Semrad1.911157111WSep 3 · 14:00J. Simek2.755121171P. Semrad1.4011147113WSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 14:15P. Semrad1.50911891P. Hala2.5011411113
L. Provaznik10
LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik2.38911113113M. Hajek1.5311781162LAug 12 · 15:45M. Hajek1.5341111113L. Provaznik2.38117751WAug 12 · 14:45O. Horak2.00114111082L. Provaznik1.73611812113
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