TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13049501
Played Aug 31Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111113119611––
Martin Skyba
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Skyba to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Martin Skyba below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 79 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Martin Skyba at 58.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 6–11 Martin Skyba Lukas Provaznik has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:34What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Skyba
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1581 vs Skyba 1665
Skyba
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 60% vs Skyba 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 60% vs Skyba 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik +2 · Skyba -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Skyba) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 2.10 / Skyba 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Skyba)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13049501
Provaznik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 62 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back28% 21 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 28
Skyba1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite68% won 21 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProvaznik5wins
AwaySkyba5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik60%3 of 5
AwaySkyba60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik5Skyba5n = 10split evenly
S2Provaznik5Skyba5n = 10split evenly
S3Provaznik6Skyba4n = 10Provaznik took 6 of 10
S4Provaznik4Skyba4n = 8split evenly
S5Provaznik1Skyba2n = 3Skyba took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricProvaznikSkybaP − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.637.2+0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikSkybaBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 323 vs 74 / 13348%55.6%155 / 323 vs 74 / 133Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaProvaznik 2.10/Skyba 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 25 · 07:15L. Provaznik—117111082M. Skyba—611812113
WJun 29 · 14:00L. Provaznik—51111113M. Skyba—115571
WJun 25 · 14:00L. Provaznik—1111113M. Skyba—8370
LMay 22 · 13:45L. Provaznik—481111122M. Skyba—111198143
LMar 30 · 20:24L. Provaznik—118791M. Skyba—61111113
WMar 30 · 17:45L. Provaznik—112119113M. Skyba—91171192
LFeb 19 · 17:00L. Provaznik—1211681M. Skyba—14711113
WAug 31 · 16:20L. Provaznik—41111113M. Skyba—118971
WAug 31 · 13:15L. Provaznik—11114113M. Skyba—781131
LAug 1 · 16:40L. Provaznik—5980M. Skyba—1111103
L. Provaznik10
LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik2.38911113113M. Hajek1.5311781162LAug 12 · 15:45M. Hajek1.5341111113L. Provaznik2.38117751WAug 12 · 14:45O. Horak2.00114111082L. Provaznik1.73611812113
M. Skyba10
WAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 16:00L. Kolman1.8371114992M. Skyba1.831191211113LAug 31 · 13:30Z. Vasatko2.3811125113M. Skyba1.535101181LAug 29 · 08:58M. Skyba1.44114111082D. Brichacek2.63811712113WAug 29 · 08:00M. Skyba1.401111113R. Merkl2.759580WAug 29 · 06:30D. Brichacek2.2055100M. Skyba1.611111123WAug 29 · 06:00T. Hybl2.257560M. Skyba1.571111113LAug 17 · 12:45L. Kolman1.83816911113M. Skyba1.83111411572WAug 17 · 11:15T. Hybl1.835540M. Skyba1.831111113LAug 17 · 10:45M. Skyba1.8067111172L. Kolman1.91111159113
Upcoming Matches
L. Provaznik
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M. Skyba
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