TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037729
Played Aug 29Finished
Martin Skyba
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115118––––
Roman Merkl
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Skyba to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Skyba above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Martin Skyba at 65.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Martin Skyba 1–0 Roman Merkl Roman Merkl has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:10What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Skyba
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skyba 1689 vs Merkl 1553
Skyba
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skyba 60% vs Merkl 40%
Skyba
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skyba 80% vs Merkl 30%
Skyba
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skyba +2 · Merkl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Skyba) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skyba form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkyba 1.40 / Merkl 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Skyba)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037729
Skyba1.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite68% won 19 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it85% 11 of 13
Merkl2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 94 of 188
Down 0–1, comes back40% 44 of 111
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkyba1wins
AwayMerkl0wins
Skyba leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkybaMerklS − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.022.0+11.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkybaMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 131 vs 275 / 57156.5%48.2%74 / 131 vs 275 / 571Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkybaSkyba 1.40/Merkl 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.3%
Skyba · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Skyba won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 29 · 08:00M. Skyba—1111113R. Merkl—9580
M. Skyba10
WAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 16:00L. Kolman1.8371114992M. Skyba1.831191211113WAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113LAug 31 · 13:30Z. Vasatko2.3811125113M. Skyba1.535101181LAug 29 · 08:58M. Skyba1.44114111082D. Brichacek2.63811712113WAug 29 · 06:30D. Brichacek2.2055100M. Skyba1.611111123WAug 29 · 06:00T. Hybl2.257560M. Skyba1.571111113LAug 17 · 12:45L. Kolman1.83816911113M. Skyba1.83111411572WAug 17 · 11:15T. Hybl1.835540M. Skyba1.831111113LAug 17 · 10:45M. Skyba1.8067111172L. Kolman1.91111159113
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113
Upcoming Matches
M. Skyba
R. Merkl
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