TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13046557
Played Aug 30Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11691111131191210
Adam Pavlik
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 103 set 5, 12-10
103 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 10–12 Adam Pavlik Roman Merkl has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 1.91 / Pavlik 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavlik)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13046557
Merkl1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 95 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back39% 44 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 52
Pavlik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 37 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl4wins
AwayPavlik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPavlik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl80%4 of 5
AwayPavlik100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl5Pavlik5n = 10split evenly
S2Merkl6Pavlik4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S3Merkl3Pavlik7n = 10Pavlik took 7 of 10
S4Merkl2Pavlik6n = 8Pavlik took 6 of 8
S5Merkl2Pavlik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklPavlikM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.740.3−2.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 574 vs 167 / 32347.9%51.7%275 / 574 vs 167 / 323Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikMerkl 1.91/Pavlik 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.3%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Merkl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 06:00R. Merkl—6117131A. Pavlik—11911153
LAug 28 · 18:45R. Merkl—9970A. Pavlik—1111113
LAug 18 · 20:39R. Merkl—11118572A. Pavlik—561111113
WAug 18 · 18:00R. Merkl—121112133A. Pavlik—10614111
WJul 19 · 12:43R. Merkl—11811113A. Pavlik—611491
LJul 19 · 11:45R. Merkl—451131A. Pavlik—11119113
LJul 1 · 15:30R. Merkl—76100A. Pavlik—1111123
LJun 29 · 15:45R. Merkl—711111072A. Pavlik—111812113
WJun 21 · 20:14R. Merkl—111149113A. Pavlik—93111192
WJun 21 · 18:15R. Merkl—131228113A. Pavlik—1110111142
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113LAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
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