TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13031427
Played Aug 28Finished
Adam Pavlik
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119117––––
Roman Merkl
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Pavlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingAdam Pavlik above · Roman Merkl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 58 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Adam Pavlik at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Adam Pavlik 10–10 Roman Merkl Dead even across their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:55What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Merkl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-10 in 20
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pavlik 1660 vs Merkl 1535
Pavlik
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pavlik 100% vs Merkl 20%
Pavlik
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pavlik 80% vs Merkl 40%
Pavlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pavlik +5 · Merkl -2
Pavlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Merkl form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPavlik 1.83 / Merkl 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pavlik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13031427
Pavlik1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Merkl1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePavlik4wins
AwayMerkl6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMerkl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePavlik75%3 of 4
AwayMerkl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pavlik4Merkl6n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S2Pavlik3Merkl7n = 10Merkl took 7 of 10
S3Pavlik5Merkl5n = 10split evenly
S4Pavlik5Merkl3n = 8Pavlik took 5 of 8
S5Pavlik2Merkl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPavlikMerklP − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.839.3−0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPavlikMerklBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 317 vs 272 / 56451.7%48.2%164 / 317 vs 272 / 564Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavlikPavlik 1.83/Merkl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pavlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 20:39A. Pavlik—561111113R. Merkl—11118572
LAug 18 · 18:00A. Pavlik—10614111R. Merkl—121112133
LJul 19 · 12:43A. Pavlik—611491R. Merkl—11811113
WJul 19 · 11:45A. Pavlik—11119113R. Merkl—451131
WJul 1 · 15:30A. Pavlik—1111123R. Merkl—76100
WJun 29 · 15:45A. Pavlik—111812113R. Merkl—711111072
LJun 21 · 20:14A. Pavlik—93111192R. Merkl—111149113
LJun 21 · 18:15A. Pavlik—1110111142R. Merkl—131228113
LMay 9 · 05:45A. Pavlik—10780R. Merkl—1211113
LMar 1 · 08:30A. Pavlik—139891R. Merkl—111111113
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 20:23M. Svitac1.731112113A. Pavlik2.0071090LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131
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