TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089212
Played Sep 6Finished
Matej Svitac
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171210119––––
Adam Pavlik
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
How it is goingMatej Svitac above · Adam Pavlik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 60 set 3, 11-9
60 points played in total.
H2H Matej Svitac 3–3 Adam Pavlik Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svitac)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pavlik form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvitac 1.73 / Pavlik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Svitac)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13089212
Svitac1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 65 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Pavlik2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 42 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back29% 12 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSvitac3wins
AwayPavlik3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvitac50%2 of 4
AwayPavlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svitac4Pavlik2n = 6Svitac took 4 of 6
S2Svitac2Pavlik4n = 6Pavlik took 4 of 6
S3Svitac3Pavlik3n = 6split evenly
S4Svitac2Pavlik3n = 5Pavlik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSvitacPavlikS − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match38.237.8+0.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvitacPavlikBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 381 vs 165 / 31954.9%51.7%209 / 381 vs 165 / 319Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvitacSvitac 1.73/Pavlik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Svitac · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svitac won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 6 · 18:15M. Svitac—91111113A. Pavlik—113471
WAug 15 · 10:15M. Svitac—11711113A. Pavlik—511961
LJul 19 · 09:15M. Svitac—24100A. Pavlik—1111123
LDec 23 · 16:15M. Svitac—11118482A. Pavlik—961111113
LJul 16 · 18:45M. Svitac—129891A. Pavlik—101111113
WJun 15 · 19:00M. Svitac—1181110113A. Pavlik—71171292
M. Svitac10
LSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252WSep 5 · 16:49L. Smazik1.80351171M. Svitac1.9111114113WSep 5 · 15:45M. Svitac2.3811117113L. Smazik1.53761151LSep 5 · 14:15P. Semrad2.101111113M. Svitac1.679860LSep 5 · 13:45Z. Vasatko2.00111192M. Svitac1.739990LSep 4 · 12:13M. Svitac1.7313580T. Hucko2.001511113WSep 4 · 11:15T. Hucko2.0015414462M. Svitac1.7313111211113WSep 4 · 10:45M. Svitac1.911111113Z. Vasatko1.808150
A. Pavlik10
LSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113LSep 6 · 18:15A. Pavlik1.83113471M. Svitac1.8391111113LSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 07:30T. Kanka1.80711119113A. Pavlik1.9111961192LAug 30 · 07:00A. Pavlik2.10101111742L. Kolman1.67129311113WAug 30 · 06:00A. Pavlik1.8011911153R. Merkl1.916117131LAug 28 · 20:19A. Pavlik1.679970P. Provaznik2.101111113WAug 28 · 19:15P. Provaznik1.80861191A. Pavlik1.9111114103WAug 28 · 18:45A. Pavlik1.831111113R. Merkl1.839970
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