TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084046
Played Sep 6Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
2113111171171012
Pavel Hala
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePavel Hala to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Pavel Hala below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 85 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Pavel Hala at 55.8%
85 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 24–29 Pavel Hala Roman Merkl has won 24 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Hala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-29 in 53
Hala
Correct
gap of 5 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1586 vs Hala 1619
Hala
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 60% vs Hala 20%
Merkl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 50% vs Hala 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl +1 · Hala -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Hala)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hala form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.10 / Hala 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Hala)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084046
Merkl2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 96 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back37% 44 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back18% 10 of 56
Hala1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 71 of 142
Up 2–0, closes it93% 41 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it65% 61 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl3wins
AwayHala7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHala leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl50%2 of 4
AwayHala83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl4Hala6n = 10Hala took 6 of 10
S2Merkl4Hala6n = 10Hala took 6 of 10
S3Merkl6Hala4n = 10Merkl took 6 of 10
S4Merkl3Hala4n = 7Hala took 4 of 7
S5Merkl0Hala3n = 3Hala took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklHalaM − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.537.8−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklHalaBasisWin rate · lifetime272 / 559 vs 309 / 61348.7%50.4%272 / 559 vs 309 / 613Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HalaMerkl 2.10/Hala 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Hala · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Hala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl—231111102P. Hala—111177123
WAug 21 · 19:15R. Merkl—1111113P. Hala—5840
LAug 16 · 11:00R. Merkl—6350P. Hala—1111113
LJun 10 · 15:00R. Merkl—11911692P. Hala—911711113
LJun 3 · 13:15R. Merkl—41111762P. Hala—115611113
WMay 25 · 20:44R. Merkl—11115153P. Hala—6811131
LMay 25 · 19:45R. Merkl—113981P. Hala—81111113
WMay 4 · 17:03R. Merkl—61111113P. Hala—116551
LMay 4 · 15:00R. Merkl—159110P. Hala—1711133
LApr 19 · 08:59R. Merkl—791121P. Hala—11117113
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 08:00R. Merkl2.38614671L. Kolman1.53111211113LAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110
P. Hala10
WSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113LSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123LSep 6 · 06:00P. Orlowski2.00131110163P. Hala1.7311712141WSep 4 · 21:03P. Hala2.1011128113P. Rucky1.675101161LSep 4 · 20:00D. Brichacek1.91115179113P. Hala1.80311151162LSep 4 · 19:00P. Orlowski1.91119211123P. Hala1.80811118102LSep 4 · 17:30P. Rucky1.611513118113P. Hala2.20131561192WSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113LSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163WSep 2 · 14:15P. Semrad1.50911891P. Hala2.5011411113
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