TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043921
Played Aug 30Finished
Roman Merkl
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111412611711––
Leon Kolman
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeLeon Kolman to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Merkl above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Leon Kolman at 59.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Roman Merkl 9–14 Leon Kolman Roman Merkl has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Kolman
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Kolman
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Merkl 1532 vs Kolman 1660
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Merkl 20% vs Kolman 40%
Kolman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Merkl 30% vs Kolman 60%
Kolman
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Merkl -2 · Kolman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Kolman) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMerkl 2.38 / Kolman 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Kolman)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13043921
Merkl2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog50% won 95 of 191
Down 0–1, comes back39% 44 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 52
Kolman1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 105 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it87% 47 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it69% 79 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMerkl5wins
AwayKolman5wins
7 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMerkl50%2 of 4
AwayKolman50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Merkl4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Merkl5Kolman5n = 10split evenly
S3Merkl4Kolman6n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S4Merkl2Kolman6n = 8Kolman took 6 of 8
S5Merkl5Kolman2n = 7Merkl took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMerklKolmanM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.245.5−3.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMerklKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime275 / 573 vs 355 / 66948%53.1%275 / 573 vs 355 / 669Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolmanMerkl 2.38/Kolman 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Kolman · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 27 · 14:15R. Merkl—9380L. Kolman—1111113
LJul 6 · 17:15R. Merkl—11114782L. Kolman—861111113
LJun 27 · 20:00R. Merkl—1041211112L. Kolman—1211109133
LJun 19 · 07:45R. Merkl—12111161L. Kolman—101313113
WJun 15 · 15:30R. Merkl—1011111113L. Kolman—12851172
LMay 10 · 08:54R. Merkl—88110L. Kolman—1111133
WMay 10 · 07:45R. Merkl—1111910113L. Kolman—99111282
WMay 9 · 07:45R. Merkl—151364113L. Kolman—1311111162
WMay 8 · 19:45R. Merkl—6111111123L. Kolman—119513102
WApr 24 · 05:15R. Merkl—1071111113L. Kolman—12119862
R. Merkl10
LSep 6 · 08:34P. Orlowski1.73111114133R. Merkl2.009416111WSep 6 · 07:30R. Merkl1.9171111113P. Orlowski1.80119891LSep 6 · 06:30R. Merkl2.10231111102P. Hala1.67111177123WSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101LSep 2 · 21:04M. Hajek1.611111133R. Merkl2.2026110WSep 2 · 19:30J. Jnr1.8039100R. Merkl1.911111123WSep 2 · 19:00R. Merkl1.911111113P. Maly1.808960LSep 2 · 18:00R. Merkl2.251481191M. Hajek1.5716116113WAug 30 · 08:29R. Merkl1.911191111123A. Pavlik1.80611139102LAug 30 · 06:30T. Kanka1.731111133R. Merkl2.0086110
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163
Upcoming Matches
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L. Kolman
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