TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084874
Played Sep 6Finished
Leon Kolman
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
11911996––––
Miroslav Hajek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Hajek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLeon Kolman above · Miroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-6
Point 55 set 3, 9-6 — our read held Miroslav Hajek at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Leon Kolman 8–9 Miroslav Hajek Leon Kolman has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolman 1602 vs Hajek 1678
Hajek
Wrong
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolman 60% vs Hajek 40%
Kolman
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolman 50% vs Hajek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolman +1 · Hajek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hajek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolman 1.91 / Hajek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hajek)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13084874
Kolman1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 72 of 163
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Hajek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it92% 43 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it77% 61 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolman4wins
AwayHajek6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHajek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolman66.7%4 of 6
AwayHajek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolman6Hajek4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S2Kolman4Hajek6n = 10Hajek took 6 of 10
S3Kolman6Hajek4n = 10Kolman took 6 of 10
S4Kolman3Hajek6n = 9Hajek took 6 of 9
S5Kolman2Hajek3n = 5Hajek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolmanHajekK − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.042.8−3.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolmanHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 672 vs 366 / 67353%54.4%356 / 672 vs 366 / 673Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.740.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekKolman 1.91/Hajek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 20:44L. Kolman—1181110123M. Hajek—711812102
LAug 26 · 19:45L. Kolman—911651M. Hajek—11611113
LAug 18 · 08:14L. Kolman—87121132M. Hajek—1111109113
WAug 18 · 05:15L. Kolman—1111113M. Hajek—5970
LAug 16 · 10:45L. Kolman—1101291M. Hajek—111210113
LAug 14 · 13:08L. Kolman—12611562M. Hajek—1011911113
WAug 14 · 12:00L. Kolman—121286113M. Hajek—1010111122
WFeb 16 · 17:00L. Kolman—11811113M. Hajek—611791
LFeb 6 · 18:45L. Kolman—12951142M. Hajek—1011119113
LJan 28 · 10:45L. Kolman—412861M. Hajek—111011113
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113WSep 2 · 15:45P. Hala1.919113141L. Kolman1.8011911163WSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113
M. Hajek10
LSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:45M. Svitac2.2081112452M. Hajek1.611191011113WSep 6 · 17:15A. Pavlik2.2551490M. Hajek1.571116103LSep 6 · 09:04M. Hajek1.83911861P. Hala1.8311611113WSep 6 · 08:00P. Hala2.00910100M. Hajek1.731112123LSep 6 · 07:00P. Orlowski2.25111111113M. Hajek1.57461371LSep 6 · 05:30R. Merkl2.3814711123M. Hajek1.5312117101WSep 4 · 12:43Z. Vasatko1.8311990M. Hajek1.831311113LSep 4 · 11:45M. Hajek1.73116571Z. Vasatko2.0091111113LSep 4 · 10:15T. Hucko1.801113113M. Hajek1.9191170
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