TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061445
Played Sep 2Finished
Lukas Provaznik
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511111811511––
Leon Kolman
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeLukas Provaznik to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Provaznik above · Leon Kolman below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 63 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Provaznik at 59.3%
63 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Provaznik 5–1 Leon Kolman Leon Kolman has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Provaznik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Provaznik
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Provaznik 1548 vs Kolman 1619
Kolman
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Provaznik 40% vs Kolman 20%
Provaznik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Provaznik 50% vs Kolman 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Provaznik -2 · Kolman -4
Kolman
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolman form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProvaznik 1.61 / Kolman 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Provaznik)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13061445
Provaznik1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 39 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 31 of 42
Kolman2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 72 of 165
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeProvaznik5wins
AwayKolman1wins
4 of 6 to a deciderProvaznik leads 5–1, and 4 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProvaznik75%3 of 4
AwayKolmann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Provaznik4Kolman2n = 6Provaznik took 4 of 6
S2Provaznik5Kolman1n = 6Provaznik took 5 of 6
S3Provaznik2Kolman4n = 6Kolman took 4 of 6
S4Provaznik3Kolman3n = 6split evenly
S5Provaznik3Kolman1n = 4Provaznik took 3 of 4
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricProvaznikKolmanP − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match46.840.5+6.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProvaznikKolmanBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 327 vs 353 / 66847.7%52.8%156 / 327 vs 353 / 668Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.340.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikProvaznik 1.61/Kolman 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik—121158113L. Kolman—102111162
LJul 25 · 05:15L. Provaznik—1311910112L. Kolman—1171112133
WJul 1 · 15:45L. Provaznik—1111911113L. Kolman—13411742
WApr 6 · 18:30L. Provaznik—136117113L. Kolman—111161142
WFeb 6 · 20:45L. Provaznik—11113143L. Kolman—7911121
WJan 31 · 16:45L. Provaznik—71111113L. Kolman—116831
L. Provaznik10
LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik2.38911113113M. Hajek1.5311781162LAug 12 · 15:45M. Hajek1.5341111113L. Provaznik2.38117751WAug 12 · 14:45O. Horak2.00114111082L. Provaznik1.73611812113
L. Kolman10
WSep 6 · 20:53M. Hajek1.83881171L. Kolman1.8311119113WSep 6 · 19:15A. Pavlik2.00131181072L. Kolman1.731191112113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Kolman1.91111193M. Hajek1.809960WSep 6 · 17:45L. Kolman2.101111610113M. Svitac1.6764111252LSep 5 · 12:49L. Kolman1.57107111282V. Herrmann2.251211910103LSep 5 · 11:45V. Lopata2.0012911113L. Kolman1.731011741WSep 5 · 10:45V. Herrmann2.5013990L. Kolman1.501511113WSep 5 · 09:15P. Maly2.25124871L. Kolman1.57101111113LSep 2 · 16:50L. Kolman1.78111011752P. Hala1.92612611113LAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162
Upcoming Matches
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L. Kolman
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