TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12407800
Played Aug 12Finished
Ondrej Horak
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1164111181012811
Lukas Provaznik
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Provaznik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Horak above · Lukas Provaznik below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 92 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Provaznik at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:54What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Provaznik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Horak 1590 vs Provaznik 1559
Horak
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horak 80% vs Provaznik 40%
Horak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horak 70% vs Provaznik 40%
Horak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horak +2 · Provaznik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Provaznik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Provaznik form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorak 2.00 / Provaznik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Provaznik)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #12407800
Horak2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 31 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back35% 14 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Provaznik1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 41 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorakProvaznikBasisWin rate · lifetime95 / 193 vs 159 / 34349.2%46.4%95 / 193 vs 159 / 343Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ProvaznikHorak 2.00/Provaznik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Provaznik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Provaznik won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
O. Horak10
LSep 4 · 16:59J. Simek1.73111172O. Horak2.0078111WSep 4 · 15:15P. Provaznik1.91118111452O. Horak1.809111312113WSep 4 · 14:45O. Horak1.80111012113M. Bruk1.916121081LSep 4 · 13:45O. Horak1.83971191J. Simek1.8311119113WAug 27 · 16:54Z. Kuksa1.91149931O. Horak1.80121111113WAug 27 · 15:15T. Hanke2.101081361O. Horak1.67121111113LAug 27 · 14:45O. Horak1.73111191262Z. Kuksa2.001371110113WAug 27 · 13:45O. Horak1.91111197113M. Soukup1.8079111172LAug 21 · 16:14D. Marasek1.25111210113O. Horak3.752101231LAug 21 · 15:15P. Semrad1.401111113O. Horak2.757380
L. Provaznik10
LSep 2 · 16:19L. Provaznik2.009460P. Semrad1.731111113WSep 2 · 15:15P. Semrad1.8399111392L. Provaznik1.831111711113LSep 2 · 14:45L. Provaznik1.61511851L. Kolman2.2011111113LSep 2 · 13:45L. Provaznik1.61711891P. Hala2.2011811113LAug 31 · 17:09M. Skyba1.61131113113L. Provaznik2.201541171WAug 31 · 15:30Z. Vasatko1.8011125772L. Provaznik1.917101111113LAug 31 · 15:00L. Provaznik2.107111161M. Skyba1.6711139113WAug 31 · 14:00L. Provaznik1.57121158113L. Kolman2.25102111162WAug 12 · 16:43L. Provaznik2.38911113113M. Hajek1.5311781162LAug 12 · 15:45M. Hajek1.5341111113L. Provaznik2.38117751
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